ASER and India’s demographic dividend: Is a new generation ready for the future?

This question is addressed here through the lens of the Annual Survey of Education (Rural) 2023 Report (ASER 2023) released last week. The ASER basic survey of children in the age group of 3-16 years is recognized as a very reliable and up-to-date assessment of the status of education in rural India. In 2016, instead of the basic survey, ASER launched a new series, ‘Beyond Basics,’ which surveyed the education status of children in the 14-18 age group. It is the group which is moving beyond the eight years of basic education guaranteed under the Right to Education Act. This age group has been surveyed again in 2023 with nearly 35,000 respondents drawn from randomly selected villages in 28 districts across 27 states.

This age cohort is at the entry point of their working life. They and the next few batches to follow will constitute the backbone of the Indian workforce over the next 25 years. Whether or not India can leverage its ‘demographic dividend’ to meet its developed-country aspirations depends critically on the capacity and skill levels of these age cohorts. ASER 2023 provides several findings to address this issue, some disappointing and others more hope-inspiring.

Of survey respondents at age 14, nearly 96% have enrolled for further education beyond the basic level. That ratio drops to 66% by age 18. Most are studying in classes X, XI and XII and some are in college, with little difference between enrolment of boys and girls. About a third of those enrolled are combining their studies with work outside home. Among those not enrolled, that ratio is higher at over 50%. Interestingly, less than 6% are seeking vocational education, presumably because they do not believe it will help them find jobs. This points to the failure of our vocational training programmes.

What basic reading and arithmetic skills have been picked up by respondents in this age group of students who have completed their basic education? ASER tests indicate that 26% of respondents in the group could not read class II level Hindi. Only 43% can read a sentence in English, but about a quarter of them showed no understanding of its meaning. Only 43% could do a simple division, with a slightly lower proportion among girls. The full impact of this huge deficit in basic reading and arithmetic skills showed up when the respondents were asked to do simple applied tasks that required the use of these basic skills, such as calculating lengths, measuring time, reading instructions for oral rehydration or performing simple financial calculations. Not surprisingly, the skill deficit turned out to be much higher among those who failed to clear the tests for basic reading and arithmetic skills. In other words, the basic skill deficits get significantly amplified when applied to the actual performance of simple, practical tasks.

What kind of tasks can these new entrants to the workforce perform except those requiring a very low level of skills? A large proportion of India’s present 14-18 age cohort and those approaching this age group have already missed the conventional learning bus. It will take years if not decades to, hopefully, fix these deficits among younger age cohorts. But by then the country’s ‘demographic dividend’ window may close. If these skill disadvantages of the workforce get added on to India’s well-known deficit in logistics, high energy costs and high regulatory compliance costs, how can the country compete successfully in the global economy?

That was my disappointing takeaway from the ASER report. But there is also an important positive takeaway relating to access, awareness, ownership and skills in using digital devices. Only 9% of those interviewed own computers and most know how to use it. But about a third of those who do not have computers also know how to use them. More exciting is the fact that nearly 90% of respondents have access to smartphones, and 92 % of them know how to use these devices. As for the use of smartphones, the large majority use it for movies and songs, 57% use it for games and 28% have used it for online services. The really good news, however, is that 61% of respondents have used a smartphone for educational purposes. This age cohort has a huge deficit in basic language and arithmetic skills, which gets amplified in actual application to practical tasks. This would seem to condemn them to lives of low skills and low productivity jobs at low wages. However, it may be possible to compensate at least partly for their deficits by leveraging their high awareness, access and skills in the use of digital devices. This would be a whole new paradigm of learning in the emerging digital age, led by technical change in the fast-emerging field of artificial intelligence (AI). This new pedagogic approach need not replace the old education system. Instead, the new paradigm can be used in parallel with and in support of the old learning paradigm.

These are the author’s personal views.