China’s latest naval exercises have shown how far it can project power
- Beijing seems bent on dominating the high seas of the Indo-Pacific. Given the geopolitical implications of China’s emergence as a maritime power that could soon rival the US, it’s odd that America has shown little concern.
In the last two weeks, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China conducted live-fire naval drills in the international waters off Australia, New Zealand and Vietnam, and shooting drills in the Taiwan Strait. This show of military might is a sign of China’s growing confidence as a maritime power.
It’s also a signal to its closest neighbours that they’ll have to start relying on each other, or boost their own defences beyond their original calculations. They can’t expect to depend on the US for backup.
US President Donald Trump’s message to the world is clear: Do things for yourself first, and then we might help you —if it suits us. In just the first month of his term, his team has told Europe that it needs to pay more for its own security, lectured allies on democracy and pulled funding from America’s aid and development programmes.
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As Washington retreats from the international stage, Beijing is advancing—militarily at least. China now has the world’s largest maritime fighting force, with 234 vessels compared to the US Navy’s 219. It is also producing more warships at a faster pace; about 70% were launched after 2010, compared to 25% for the US Navy.
While China’s vessels aren’t necessarily superior—yet—the US Office of Naval Intelligence assessed in 2020 that its ships were increasingly of comparable quality. Last year, Beijing also passed the milestone of achieving more than 50% of the US Navy’s firepower in vertical launch system missile cells on its surface ships. This will allow Beijing to take more advanced weapon systems further out into the world’s oceans.
The recent Chinese drills took place in international waters and are permissible under international law. The US Navy traverses the world’s oceans, including the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, along with partners and allies.
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Freedom of navigation, and what’s known as “right of innocent passage," are central tenants of the rules-based world order, which bring with them an implicit contract—a polite adherence to international norms. But Beijing didn’t issue any notice about the drills in the Tasman Sea or the Taiwan Strait. Australia discovered them through a commercial pilot via radio communications.
The mainland’s message is hiding in plain sight, suggests Anne-Marie Brady, professor of political science and international relations at New Zealand’s University of Canterbury. “China is now a sea power in the Pacific. They want to rule the waves." The intent was clear—its actions disrupted commercial air travel in the Tasman Sea, and were a show of intimidation to smaller opponents.
Taiwan has condemned the exercises, citing severe disruptions in regional peace and stability, and labelled them blatant acts of provocation. The self-ruled island, which China claims as its own, understands Beijing’s military might better than most. Warships and planes from the mainland cross the median line between them almost daily, fatiguing Taipei’s defence forces.
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The scale of these manoeuvres though, is different. They partly convey that we’re no longer dealing with simply a superpower in East Asia, but a “great maritime power" whose presence is to be more ubiquitous, as Elena Collinson and Corey Lee Bell at the Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney, note. Resistance, Beijing appears to have signalled, is futile. We should anticipate China to project power in places far beyond domains subject to its territorial claims.
Trump is only making this easier. Under previous administrations, the US has called itself a ‘Pacific nation’ and built a network of partners in the Indo-Pacific to help maintain influence. But with the new president, none of this is guaranteed. He’s imposed tariffs on allies and tied potential security guarantees to economic interests.
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This has left many in Asia with the impression that ‘America First’ means ‘America Alone’—meaning they’re on their own too. Asian countries will have to invest more in their own defence as Europe and the UK are also considering. Some of this is already happening. Taiwan and Japan have announced plans to boost their defence budgets. Singapore and India continue to make it a priority, while Australia and New Zealand are weighing their options.
Still, bigger defence spending is no guarantee of a secure military alliance with the US. Washington risks missing the bigger picture with this approach.
The People’s Liberation Army has long had aspirations to extend its reach to greater distances. Its military drills around the Indo-Pacific have shown that China can activate that capability.
China is getting militarily stronger in an age of great power adventurism. Will the US do anything about it? ©Bloomberg
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