Opinion
Adapt to a Trumpian world order in a way that makes India great
Summary
- We should avoid the lock-in of a faulty trade deal with the US, grab business opportunities (in services especially) and strengthen mutually beneficial ties with Washington, but hold firm on India’s strategic autonomy. Broadly, let’s aim for what’ll make India great.
How should India advance its interests in the Trumpian world that was inaugurated on Monday?
As US president, Trump is expected to alter American and global norms on trade, migration, climate change, relations between government and business, the use of military might and more.
His avowed goal is to make America great again (MAGA). It is risky.
Trumpian policies might hurt the US itself and the world at large.
Also Read: The good, the bad and the uncertainty of the US economy under a Trump presidency
India must navigate its way through a world in flux, ruffling as few feathers as it can, while shielding its core interests.
Trump will be in power for four years.
How long his ideas last after that is uncertain, which means New Delhi should not lock India into long-term commitments that harm our interests merely to accommodate short-term pressure from Washington.
Let’s not rush into a trade pact with the US just to satisfy a mutual urge to announce a ‘deal.’
On trade, till there is clarity on the tariffs that Trump will actually adopt, which may differ from his rhetoric, there is nothing much we can do, except avoid locking ourselves into an agreement that runs a high risk of regret.
A sensible course would be to negotiate ad-hoc deals.
For instance, if Trump wants lower import duties on big US motorbikes, we could grant him those, while seeking concessions in sectors that affect Indian industry more broadly.
H1-B visas matter a lot to us, and, for the time being, Trump is backing advocates of visa liberalization like Elon Musk. We should build on this disposition.
Also Read: America’s H-1B visa is vital to US interests—and suits India too
Trump’s policies can change over his tenure.
Our focus on expanding service exports from India should stay constant.
On geopolitical matters, India and the US have concerns that both overlap and diverge. We should strengthen ties on overlaps, while also quietly reinforcing our strategic autonomy in areas of divergence.
The MAGA crowd may bay for US cudgels taken up against those seen as deviants from a Trump-set world order, be it over compliance with US sanctions or the pursuit of multilateral arrangements that lean in favour of the Global South.
But New Delhi would have to stand firm and make trade-offs that minimize damage to our interests, while enhancing benefits for both India and the US.
This is not just a matter of clarity and diplomatic finesse.
Withstanding geopolitical and economic pressure calls for vastly expanded and varied domestic capability.
Sure, this cannot be created overnight, but a sound start must be made.
Sensible policy formulation should be followed up with sufficient funding and resolute implementation.
Trump seems set to admit a select group of chummy business owners to the inner circles of US policymaking and make arbitrary calls that seek to maximize short-term US benefits even if others suffer.
With luck, such deviance by the world’s largest economy will not warp the world order in a way that cannot be undone later.
It would call for deft manoeuvring to defend existing norms by sub-global groupings and agreements to uphold rules that serve the world well, even if the US flouts them.
Of particular concern is our effort to combat climate change.
Also Read: War, climate, & AI: World’s three big challenges of 2025
How Trump sees the threat does not diminish the reality of it, so the rest of us cannot afford any let-up on climate action.
We should champion carbon capture-and-use technologies and businesses, step up both our adoption and advocacy of clean energy, and push ahead towards net-zero.
India should be among the countries that Trump’s policies make great.
