Harsh Pant: How the world at large should brace for Trump 2.0

There are his appointments, there are his statements and then there are his pronouncements on social media. 

If there is a method to this madness, no one is quite sure, but for global policymakers who are already battling a turbulent phase in global politics, managing Trump’s shake-ups will be a key policy objective in the coming months.

Also Read: Trump’s deeds may not have the same bite as his plans

In one of his most important public interventions where he outlined his foreign policy agenda for his second term, he harked back to the era of territorial conquest and spheres of influence, while rejecting the constraints of allied partnerships and economic complementarity. 

He underlined his willingness to wrest control of the Panama Canal and Greenland through the use of force, even as he threatened Canada with obliterating its sovereignty. 

It was a remarkable statement of intent by a US policymaker in contemporary times as such a pronouncement by any other country would have led to the label of “rogue" being slapped on it by Washington itself.

Trump, however, has normalized such discourse to an extent that it comes across as the first salvo in a potentially long-drawn negotiation with key interlocutors. 

When asked if he would rule out using military or economic force in order to take over Greenland or the Panama Canal, Trump was categorical: “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two. But I can say this, we need them for economic security." 

On Canada, while Trump has indicated he was not considering using military force to make Canada part of the United States, he has criticized Canada’s low defence spending and threatened it with 25% tariffs, calling it the 51st state of the US.

For all the talk of a bipartisan consensus on foreign policy in the context of core US interests, Trump is posing a challenge unlike anything seen before. 

He is questioning the fundamentals of that seeming US consensus. He had done it in his first term as well. 

Before he took office, his pronouncements on China were often ignored or ridiculed. 

They were considered so divergent from the mainstream that many believed the US establishment would ensure Trump’s adherence to conventional policy on China. 

But that, he did not do. 

Instead, he shook up the consensus on China and reframed the Western discourse on China almost single-handedly. It is safe to assume that a conventional Republican or Democratic president would not have been able to do so.

Also Read: Trump’s second presidency signals the end of the Washington Consensus

Trump’s shift was so significant that not only did his successor Joe Biden continue with it, he even accelerated it, with the wider West recognizing a need to reorient its China policy. 

Similarly, Trump’s threat to Nato allies led to a rethink among its non-US members over living up to their defence-spending commitments for the alliance framework to stay credible.

Today, he is challenging the wider consensus in the US establishment on the American periphery. 

The sense that US leadership is getting weaker in the neighbourhood is palpable and the role of extra regional players, especially China, has been growing exponentially. 

The role of China in the management of the Panama Canal has long been a worry for the US, and Trump might be keen to renegotiate the fee structure for US cargo ships and Navy vessels sailing through the waterway. 

Concerns about Beijing’s influence over the canal are related to its two ports situated at either end of the canal that are operated by CK Hutchison Holdings, a Hong Kong-based company.

Trump has been fixated with the idea of buying Greenland since 2019 at least, but as the Arctic gets contested, he might be aiming for greater American access to rare-earth minerals there. 

He is also eyeing a better trade arrangement with Canada and stricter immigration controls along that border.

There seem to be some hard-nosed geopolitical calculations in Trump’s pronouncements so far. 

How he and his team implement his ideas would determine his foreign policy legacy. But his ability to surprise remains at the heart of his style. 

After berating China throughout his campaign, he managed to have a “very good" phone call with China’s President Xi Jinping last week, with expectations of solving “many problems together and starting immediately." 

Also Read: Trump’s shake-up of world trade: Much ado about nothing?

At the same time, one of the first foreign policy acts of the Trump administration will be a meeting held with foreign ministers of America’s three Quad partners—Japan, India and Australia.

At its foundation, Trump’s world view was best captured in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly in 2020 where he argued: “As president, I have rejected the failed approaches of the past, and I am proudly putting America first, just as you should be putting your countries first. That’s okay—that’s what you should be doing."

India, along with the rest of the world, should prepare accordingly.

The author is professor of international relations, King’s College London, and vice president for studies at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.