Opinion
Nitin Pai: India has some big cards to play in negotiations with Trump
Summary
- New Delhi does have leverage of the kind that may impress the US President. Here’s a full suit of cards, including a joker, that can be played. But it’s best to wait for Trump’s moves to gain a bargaining advantage.
Trump: “You’re not in a good position. You don’t have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards."
Zelensky: “I’m not playing cards. I’m very serious, Mr President. I’m very serious."
Trump: “You’re playing cards. You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III."
Donald Trump told Volodymyr Zelensky that the latter had no cards no fewer than five times in the last 10 minutes of their infamous meeting at the Oval Office last week. The US President likes to think in terms of cards (both metaphorical ones used for negotiating deals and literal ones to gain permanent residency in the US). As much as I dislike reducing international relations to a game, realism demands that we deal with the world as it is.
India is a swing power between the US and China, and to a lesser extent between the US and Europe. Without overstating the case, India’s choice can determine which side feels greater pleasure or pain on several geopolitical and geo-economic issues. Also, we are among the few countries that view closer ties between the US and Russia favourably. If a transactional Trump only recognizes cards and how to leverage them, then India needs to strengthen its hand and play its own cards well.
Also Read: The Oval Office showdown left Putin holding a trump card in the Ukraine War
What might be those cards? Let me list 13 cards of a suit, with a joker to go along with them.
Two: Cooperate on illegal immigration. Let Washington repatriate verified Indian nationals at its expense.
Three: Support the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Four: Support the use of Swift as international payments infrastructure.
Five: Reduce tariffs on a wide range of imports, and on some high-profile items, bring duties down to zero.
Six: Emphasize India’s support for a peaceful settlement of West Asian conflicts through the India Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC).
Seven: Purchase more crude oil from the US, exceeding $25 billion this year.
Eight: Clear the decks for private investment in nuclear energy, enabling US energy companies to install small modular reactors in India.
Nine: Permit Elon Musk’s Starlink services regulated access to the Indian market. Make an exception for the import of Tesla cars.
Ten: Opt for Western equipment over Chinese in next-generation telecommunications infrastructure.
Jack: Conclude a bilateral preferential trade agreement with the US.
Queen: Purchase as much military equipment as prudential considerations allow from the US. Do not rush to conclude a deal on F-35 aircraft, though.
King: Ensure that the military balance in the Indian Ocean region is not in China’s favour.
Ace: Participate in a countervailing coalition against China in the Indo-Pacific while simultaneously supporting a US-Russia alignment in world politics.
And the Joker? Encourage a grand deal between the US and Iran, especially one that can get Tehran to distance itself from Beijing.
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Some of these cards might appear cynical, some naive and some unrealistic. They probably are. Even so, the test of leverage is the extent to which playing them will create pleasure or the absence of it in Trump’s mind.
This brings us to an important point. The strength of these cards depends on policies and actions that India undertakes to make them effective. This calls for, well, duplicity. For instance, India’s support for Swift is meaningful only if there are viable substitutes available.
All cards need to be hedged. If the China card is our Ace, then it needs to be hedged the most. If Trump were to abandon Taiwan and make a deal with China’s President Xi Jinping, the Ace will see rapid devaluation. But this is unlikely.
There is a strong bipartisan consensus in Washington on the need to confront China, and a number of officials in the Trump administration have been strongly opposed to Beijing’s rise. China’s leaders, for their part, are unlikely to accept Trump’s supremacy. Furthermore, it is unclear what Xi can offer Trump that will cause him to give away Taiwan.
Despite all this, we cannot ignore the possibility that Trump will prefer to make a grand bargain instead of risking military confrontation with China. Japan, Australia and India could be left holding the baby, having to deal with a vengeful Beijing.
Some of the things Trump wants from India are in our own interests to give. Lower tariffs are likely to boost manufacturing exports and lower consumer prices. Buying fuel from the US adds to supply security. Small reactors are part of the solution to India’s energy needs.
Also Read: India must keep its strategic options open as Trump’s tariffs kick in
But New Delhi should not make anticipatory concessions. Trump is proceeding with tariffs on Canada and Mexico despite their yielding to his demands on countering drug smuggling and illegal immigration. It may be better to see what Washington does and respond accordingly. Over the next few months, the consequences of most of Trump’s policy upheavals will be felt by the American people. That would be a much better time to negotiate.
The author is co-founder and director of The Takshashila Institution, an independent centre for research and education in public policy.
