South Asian target: Let’s aim for a durable India-Pakistan ceasefire

Pakistan’s appetite for continuing violence and bloodshed seemed to have diminished over the past few years, only to resurface with the appointment of a new army chief whose words suggest he views strife with India as a religious battle. India’s measured response to the Pahalgam carnage, which claimed 26 innocent lives, by targeting terror infrastructure across the Line of Control has rendered irrelevant some of the old red lines. 

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It also shows New Delhi’s decision to redefine South Asia’s sophomoric geopolitical grammar by replacing passivity with decisive but limited action. 

As anticipated in war games, Pakistan predictably retaliated while stoking its anti-India rhetoric at home, plausibly to keep the army chief secure in his position. The cessation of active hostilities has been patchy, but will count as mutually assured rationality if it holds out. Given the inherent instability of mutual relations, though, there is no saying when it gets violated again.

There may be some lessons for India in last week’s intimations of war. 

The first is on the role of various third parties that have inserted themselves into the bilateral equation. Consider the inconsistent narratives on how the ceasefire came about. On one side, Pakistan seemingly invited intermediation. On the other hand, India has steadfastly held that the cessation arose from ground-level communication and an exchange of information between the director generals of military operations on both sides. This betrays Pakistan’s desire to refocus the world’s attention on its imagined geopolitical significance, a signal to superpowers that it has put the Abbotabad embarrassment behind it and is open for business again. 

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Western states have in the past used Pakistan as a willing launch pad for dark ops, ensuring a source of gravy for Pakistan’s elite and some trickle-down benefits for its economy. New Delhi needs to reinforce its stand on keeping relations bilateral to stymie Islamabad’s attempts to acquire geopolitical muscle in the region.

There are economic lessons as well. To a large extent, Pakistan’s irrelevance has been the result of India’s rapid GDP growth since the early 1990s, with every misadventure by trigger-happy generals in Rawalpindi harming its own economy far more. Last year, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had to make a Faustian deal with China, with security promises extended in exchange for expanded largesse and debt forgiveness. Even so, India’s commercial engagement with China is more valuable, with Beijing eyeing a vast market here for its exports. Unfortunately, border clashes have occluded this leverage. 

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On the other side of the globe, the US is also on the lookout for markets to sell its goods and services. India’s stance of strategic autonomy could prove advantageous here, as both China and the US can be engaged as economic partners in exchange for recognition of New Delhi as South Asia’s stabilizing force. Part of such a grand bargain could strive to strip Pakistani armed forces of their extra-constitutional powers and restore electoral democracy in Pakistan. This could give a ceasefire the durability it needs.