Pakistan must step back from the brink of worse
Summary
India’s finely targeted military strikes on terror set-ups leave space for a Pakistani ramp-off. Pakistan’s best option is clear. It must not do anything that’ll raise the risk of this conflict escalating into war.The horrific attack of 22 April by terrorists on tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir, took New Delhi’s patience past yet another breaking point, the last being in 2019. The Indian military response was aimed squarely at terror set-ups and should be seen not just as retaliatory, but as a calibrated move to secure long-term progress against a significant menace that the subcontinent needs to be rid of. It was part of a well thought-out plan after diplomatic options were exhausted and not a declaration of war.
Hours before sunrise on 7 May, Indian armed forces launched precision strikes on terror infrastructure in Pakistan and parts of Kashmir under its control. Nine targets were hit under Operation Sindoor, with justice for the widows of Pahalgam victims its domestic signal. For Pakistan, it’s a loud message: If it won’t act to contain the menace of terrorism, India would. It also signalled that India has the intelligence back-up to conduct such deep strikes.
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Unlike in 2019, Indian forces apparently did not cross the Line of Control (LoC), with high-precision missiles and the like deployed for the purpose, although it isn’t yet clear if Indian fighter jets entered Pakistani airspace. But India’s strikes were harder-hitting, with direct aim taken at carefully identified targets: terror camps and launchpads, including the main bases of terror groups Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba. An offshoot of the latter had claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam killings and India said it had evidence pointing to the involvement of terrorists based in Pakistan.
New Delhi described the strikes as “measured, non-escalatory and responsible in nature." Notably, this mission to disable terror capacity steered clear of Pakistan’s military facilities. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had vowed that India would “identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers," and the armed action taken was within that outline.
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Reports from across the border indicate a death toll of at least 26 individuals. Pakistan called it an “act of war" and declared that its armed forces had been “fully authorized" to “undertake corresponding actions." What Pakistan must note, though, is the proportionality of India’s move in the context of its role in terror generation. As India hosts no such camps, Pakistani forces cannot spot targets that can credibly correspond with those hit by India.
Also, Pakistan’s economy is in such bad shape that it needs to think hard about what a worse-case scenario for it would look like. Escalation would only push its prospects of progress further back; its interest lies in letting the matter end here.
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Nuclear-armed countries, in particular, need to be clear about what counts as external aggression. Surgical strikes to neutralize known sources of pain do not. Pakistan may possibly be tempted to make at least an optical display of counter-strikes. If it goes beyond the low-intensity cross-LoC shelling already reported, it would be unfortunate. Indian defences are on high alert to foil all its attempts.
Regardless of what unfolds, both countries ought to treat this episode as a closed chapter now. One-upmanship must be avoided for the risk of escalation to be kept down. Also, both countries must resolve their disputes without the intervention of others, which could end up reducing Pakistan’s autonomy, but not India’s. The best strategic option for Pakistan’s generals at this juncture is clear: De-escalate.
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