Opinion
Taiwan is under siege but not short of security options
Summary
- Given a potentially distracted US, China may be plotting a takeover of the island that it considers a rebel province. Taipei must do what it can. Passing its long delayed defence budget, for example.
It makes sense to think that US President Donald Trump’s trade war is increasing the risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan because it adds pressure on Beijing. But the self-ruled island isn’t more vulnerable because of US tariffs. It’s already under siege from the mainland on multiple fronts.
Taipei has long been a geopolitical flashpoint. It now risks losing its hard-won autonomy if it does not confront these threats with more urgency. That would mean strengthening military capabilities, passing an overdue defence budget, and preparing citizens for a possibly prolonged period of mainland aggression. It has invested in missile defence systems and asymmetric weaponry, and extended conscription service. But progress on these deterrence measures has been uneven.
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Some analysts have speculated whether Trump’s tariffs will accelerate China’s timeline for unification because Washington is distracted. Beijing has been ramping up military activities. It has sent a surging number of war-planes and coast guard vessels around the island. Strategists have referred to this campaign as an ‘anaconda strategy,’ a way to strangle Taiwan militarily, economically, diplomatically and psychologically, eventually forcing unification without ever formally declaring war.
Beijing is preparing for confrontation, clearly. The People’s Liberation Army is now the world’s largest maritime fighting force and continues to modernize rapidly. Recent footage of new barges suggests it may have developed the capacity to land tens of thousands of troops and heavy equipment on Taiwan’s shores. Capability doesn’t equal intent, but the images are a reminder of Beijing’s ambitions.
Still, most military experts agree the most likely scenario would be a quarantine or blockade, not a full-scale amphibious assault, which is believed to be beyond the PLA’s reach for now. Taiwanese intelligence says 2027 may be a potential target date for an attack.
As destructive as this defence build-up is, the mainland is also weakening the island from within. Last year, prosecutions for espionage, particularly among military personnel, soared in Taiwan. And Beijing is using AI-created disinformation campaigns to divide Taiwanese society as well as targeting undersea communication cables, cutting off digital infrastructure to isolate the island. These operations fit with the idea of ‘winning without fighting,’ as outlined by Sun Tzu and favoured by President Xi Jinping.
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China is likely to exploit Trump’s unpredictability to its advantage, noted Xin Qiang, an academic at Fudan University, on a recent Asia Society podcast before tariffs went into effect. Beijing sees Trump as transactional, which makes him dangerous but also possibly useful, he suggests.
Taiwan’s own politics may also be giving China the upper hand. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party is gridlocked with the opposition Kuomintang party in parliament, delaying critical defence legislation. The uncertain environment and America’s lack of security guarantees could play directly into Xi’s hands, convincing the Taiwanese they may be safer in Beijing’s embrace than in Washington’s.
The 90-day reprieve from US tariffs on its trade partners is a chance for negotiation. President Lai Ching-te is hoping the deal he’s offering Trump will be enough to not just secure trade relief, but guarantees security ties too. Relying on that alone is dangerous. It’s time for Lai to use his political skills to get opposition parties to come to an agreement, and not allow infighting to derail security planning. In the absence of a consistent American-led effort to deter China, Taipei needs to prioritize self-reliance and pass its defence budget.
Lessons from countries like Finland and Sweden, which spent decades preparing for the threat of Russian aggression, are instructive. Taiwan is implementing a whole-of-society resilience approach, including citizen training and civil defence measures. This will help in preparations for a potential attack. In the past, these efforts were downplayed out of fear of spooking citizens. Acknowledging the urgency now is progress, and should continue.
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Taipei should also counter Beijing’s AI disinformation campaigns in a coordinated manner and educate people. Some of this is already happening, but boosting media literacy campaigns and public awareness programmes could help bring home the scale of the threat.
The US president’s transactional diplomacy threatens to isolate Taiwan just when solidarity around its future is urgently needed. Beijing will surely exploit any cracks it can spot. Depending simply on the whims of the administration in the White House for protection could mean gambling with its future. Taiwan may be under siege, but it’s not without options to shore up its security. ©Bloomberg
The author is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China.
