Perhaps Zelensky should write a book on the ‘art of the deal’
Summary
Ukraine’s leader held firm in negotiations with the Trump-led US on a deal over minerals and other natural resources. By keeping the risk of American exploitation low, Zelensky seems to have emerged as a hero from his White House squabble.
Maybe it’s Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky who should be writing books about the art of negotiation. For a while, it looked as though Zelensky had made a huge miscalculation by highlighting the opportunities available to allies in exploiting his nation’s natural resources.
The idea was to interest the famously transactional Donald Trump in Ukraine’s defence and it seemed a clever ruse at the time. In the event, it almost blew up a military relationship critical to Ukraine’s survival, but the deal as now at least partially agreed looks like a good save.
We do not yet have the deal’s published text, and—according to a Ukrainian news agency that saw the documents—an important further “technical" protocol remains to be signed.
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Still, if the agreement is as described by both Ukrainskaya Pravda and Yulia Svyrydenko—the economy minister who drove the final negotiation—it at least averted disaster and could serve a little of the original purpose.
The neo-colonial terms of exploitation in previously leaked US drafts that Trump clearly expected Zelensky to sign on the spot—because the American president exploded in anger when that did not happen—are no longer there.
The US won’t have legal jurisdiction over the joint fund to be created, isn’t in full control, but must make decisions by consensus in a 50-50 arrangement and will not own any assets. Only future investments are to be included.
Nor will US companies get the right of first refusal on all projects, a provision that would have clashed with Ukraine’s plans for joining the European Union at some point. In fact, as described, the deal now includes a clause that allows for revision if terms do prove to contravene EU membership requirements.
There’s also no mention of back payments to cover previous US war aid to date (which was given in the form of grants not to be repaid), nor any ridiculous figure as to what that would require (at one point Trump talked about $350 billion, or even $500 billion, four times the actual total). Ukrainian infrastructure is no longer to be included in the fund. There’s a list of 57 minerals, including natural gas, that are— but, again, the fund will draw and divide revenue only from extraction licences issued after the fund’s formation.
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What this seems to have become is a deal that could give Trump political cover to resume the provision of arms to Ukraine, should he choose, by creating a mechanism for repayment, but without destroying Zelensky’s political standing at home. According to Ukrainians, the US can add future arms provisions as capital contributions to the fund and can withdraw profits to recover those costs after 10 years. Until then, all revenue would go to Ukraine’s reconstruction.
There’s no hiding the fact that Trump and his administration wanted more. The earlier drafts were so punitive that they seemed designed to force Zelensky into a position where he either rejected the approach outright, allowing Trump to cut off arm supplies and force Ukraine’s capitulation or accept and be swept away by public outrage. Whatever the plan was, Trump also appears to have miscalculated.
Zelensky fell into neither trap. Even during his explosive Oval Office humiliation, he somehow managed to hold his own without burning all bridges. It has been a strategy of dogged persistence and he may need more of it.
That technical protocol includes some of the key wins the Ukrainian side has been claiming, including the question of legal jurisdiction and the 10-year rule on US withdrawals. These will be critical to getting the Rada and Ukrainians in general to accept that this is a deal that will aid, rather than exploit them, already a difficult task, given the optics.
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Even once complete, though, it’s unclear what this tumultuous negotiation will have achieved. Though proposed by Washington as an agreement to help deter Russia by putting US companies and personnel in the way of any potential attack, it’s more realistic to view that in reverse. What the arrangement proves to be and do will be determined almost entirely by what happens in settlement talks with Russia and how Trump responds to those.
Should the war end quickly, the new US-Ukraine fund could well have an economic role to play. If not, investment is improbable and Trump can either ignore the deal or—less likely—use it to re-arm Ukraine. At a minimum, it could be used to pay for continued and critical US intelligence support.
Either way, if the remaining documents get signed as planned, Zelensky and his negotiators seem to have neutralized a potentially fatal dispute. ©Bloomberg
The author is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Europe, Russia and the Middle East.
