Politics
In Tamil Nadu, BJP’s final frontier, will Modi magic work this time?
Summary
- Lok Sabha Election 2024: Modi is growing in popularity in Tamil Nadu and BJP is gaining support in the Dravidian heartland, especially among the young voters. In fact, a national party has become a force to reckon with after almost five decades. Will this popularity translate into votes?
Chennai, Coimbatore, Theni: The sound of approaching helicopters stirred the otherwise bored 10,000-strong crowd, waiting for hours, into excitement. Chants of ‘Modi, Modi, Modi’ attained a feverish pitch as three helicopters with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his entourage touched down at Then Tirupati, a village 35km from Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu. The chant continued to reverberate across the venue till Modi reached the dais.
This was in sharp contrast to how he was greeted five years ago. Modi was viewed as anti-Tamil. While the Modi wave swept the rest of India, he was greeted with black flags in the state; #gobackModi trended on social media every time he visited.
Poll results underlined this anger. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), despite being in alliance with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), managed to secure just 3.66% of the total votes polled in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Over the next few years, Modi worked hard at correcting the anti-Tamil perception. More on that later.
Today, BJP is gaining support in the Dravidian heartland, especially among the young and first-time voters. In fact, in the electoral battlefields of Tamil Nadu, a national party has become a force to reckon with after almost five decades.
This, however, does not mean that it will be a cake walk for BJP. The state, perhaps for the first time, is seeing a strong three-cornered contest. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), the ruling party in Tamil Nadu, has put up a strong alliance with Congress, the Left and other regional parties, to ensure consolidation of anti-BJP votes. At the same time, anti-DMK votes will be split across two alliances, one led by BJP and another by AIADMK.
“If BJP’s vote share crosses a critical mass, it will establish itself as a party that has come to stay and dominate the politics in Tamil Nadu," said S. Gurumurthy, political commentator and editor of Thuglak, a Tamil political magazine.
Political pundits are not clear if the groundswell for BJP in Tamil Nadu is large enough to secure one or more seats in the coming general elections—the state will vote on 19 April. If the party does manage to do so, it would have crossed the final frontier in its drive to become a truly national party.
The stranglehold
The last time a national party put up a strong fight in Tamil Nadu was in 1967 when the Indian National Congress lost and DMK came to power in the state. Ever since, Tamil Nadu has been in the stranglehold of Dravidian parties, DMK and AIADMK.
Congress’ clout progressively weakened and over time, it began to piggyback on either of the Dravidian parties to bag a few parliamentary seats. Today, it is a junior partner in the DMK-led alliance. Its vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections (in alliance with DMK) was 13%.
“Till 1973, the anti-DMK votes went to Congress. But after actor M.G. Ramachandran broke away from DMK and floated AIADMK, he started getting those votes. It stayed with AIADMK," said Gurumurthy.
This may be changing now. “BJP has risen to a position where it will now get the anti-DMK votes," he added.
BJP rose partly by accident and partly on account of conscious efforts it made. The accident part first. In the last two elections—the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2021 state assembly polls—BJP aligned with AIADMK. “This time, too, we were keen on continuing the alliance. But, the AIADMK leadership chose to part ways," said K.T. Raghavan, former general secretary of BJP in Tamil Nadu. The relationship between the two parties soured after the leader of BJP’s state unit, K. Annamalai, attacked two Dravidian stalwarts—C.N. Annadurai and J. Jayalalithaa.
Going alone has both advantages and disadvantages. “The advantage is that the party grows," said Vanathi Srinivasan, BJP’s member of legislative assembly (MLA) from Coimbatore South. In the 2019 election, the party contested in just five seats as part of a large alliance. “The Lotus symbol will be contesting in 23 seats this time and in all these constituencies, the party will grow," she added.
Also, contesting more seats helps to develop second-line leadership and improve organizational strength. “Going alone is the best long-term strategy for the party but causes short-term pain," she said.
What is that short-term pain? The party may not make immediate gains in terms of winning seats. “An AIADMK-BJP alliance would have won at least 15 seats or more in this election," said S. Subburayar, a former MLA from Cumbum, a constituency that borders Kerala in south-west Tamil Nadu.
Charm offensive
Prime Minister Modi made efforts to win over the Tamil people after the party’s poor show in 2019.
The Supreme Court’s ban on Jallikattu, a traditional bull taming event, in 2014, triggered uproar and many people started blaming BJP. The sport has now been legalized through an amendment of law in 2017. Demonetization and the implementation of goods and services tax (GST) worsened people’s perception about the party.
“It was a false narrative that DMK had propagated. It resonated with the people, and we could not counter it," said Vanathi Srinivasan.
Post-2019 elections, Modi began focusing more on Tamil Nadu. Mamallapuram, a historic town about 50km from Chennai, was chosen as the venue for his informal summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2019.
“He reiterated his love for the Tamil language, which he acknowledged as the oldest language in the world. He frequently referred to Tamil literary works both in India and abroad, including in the United Nations," said Srinivasan.
Modi also conducted Kashi Tamil Sangamam, a symposium on Tamil language and culture, in his constituency and Saurashtra Tamil Sangamam in Gujarat, his home state.
In its latest manifesto, BJP has promised to create ‘Thiruvalluvar Cultural Centers’ across the world to promote Tamil language. In addition, he got the sengol, a sceptre that symbolizes transfer of power from the British to India, installed in the new parliament building. It was originally given to Jawaharlal Nehru by religious monks from Tamil Nadu at the time of India’s independence.
“This apart, he ensured that all the ministers visited the state regularly. He also spoke something on Tamil Nadu in every Mann Ki Baat radio address," Srinivasan added.
Between February and now, Modi has made eight visits to the state. All these efforts may have worked.
N. Renguraj, a villager from Then Tirupati, who had come to hear Modi, always voted for DMK. He said that many people in his village now support Modi and BJP. “But, I haven’t decided who to vote for yet," he quickly clarified.
A. Rajesh, a native of Kothagiri, a town in the Nilgiris, said that many young people in his area have shifted their support to BJP. “The reason is that under Modi, India has emerged stronger. People across the world respect us more and the benefits that the government offers reach us directly," he explained.
K. Saravanan, an ambulance driver at Senjerimalai, a town in Coimbatore parliamentary constituency, agreed with Rajesh. In his area too, most youngsters have shifted loyalties from DMK and AIADMK to BJP.
No walk in the park
Nonetheless, BJP faces an uphill task. As mentioned earlier, DMK has formed a strong alliance with Congress, the Communist parties and a few other regional players to consolidate the anti-BJP votes. At the same time, the anti-DMK votes are split in many ways. This electoral arithmetic will help DMK even when there is some disenchantment against its performance in the state.
M. Ayyanar, a native of Andipatti, an erstwhile AIADMK stronghold in southern Tamil Nadu, has been a DMK supporter for a long time. He drives an autorickshaw. When this writer met him, he was selling cucumbers grown in his field for some additional income. This time, Ayyanar isn’t sure whether to vote for DMK. “Power cost has gone up and so has the price of milk," he said. BJP has been seeking support based on its track record in the last 10 years—clean governance and use of technology for direct benefit transfer. “Ten major centrally sponsored schemes—such as Ayushman Bharat, PM Awaz Yojana, PM Kisan and Mudra Loans—have 1 million beneficiaries in each parliamentary constituency in the state. We are targeting them individually," said BJP’s Raghavan.
Making India strong and respectable across the world is another talking point which seems to have resonated well with the young. The party is also warning that a drug menace has spread across Tamil Nadu. Meanwhile, it has portrayed DMK and Congress as dynastic parties that put the family’s interest ahead of the nation.
“In BJP, anyone can become a leader and grow. That is not possible in DMK. Most candidates fielded by that party in this election are relatives of their leaders," said Srinivasan. K. Annamalai, a BJP state leader, has been attracting young voters in a big way, she added. Annamalai is an engineer and a former police officer.
AIADMK, on the other hand, says that BJP attracting a large following is just a social media phenomenon. “On the ground, the fight continues to be between AIADMK and DMK," said T.K. Ramachandran, head of AIADMK’s IT wing. He is also the party’s Coimbatore candidate fighting Annamalai in this election.
When this writer met him, he was campaigning at Coimbatore constituency’s Senjerimalai area. “Look at the people assembled here," he said, driving around in his campaign vehicle. “Do they look like they are part of social media?"
He is confident of AIADMK doing well as people are angry with DMK because of inflation. He also maintained that people are still angry with Modi. DMK, on the other hand, has been attacking BJP for working against the interest of the state. Fiscal devolution, release of flood relief, the Centre’s share in many centrally sponsored schemes are all issues the party highlights.
“BJP will make no impact because it does not understand Tamil Nadu. They have not put any effort to truly understand us," said T.R.B. Rajaa, DMK leader and the state’s industry minister.
The outcome
Tamil Nadu has not witnessed such an electoral contest before. A strong three-cornered contest is new for the state. Added to this mix is Naam Thamilar Katchi, a growing party targeting the youth. The party can chip away votes from the established ones. Nonetheless, the electoral arithmetic, according to leading psephologists and political observers like Gurumurthy, favours DMK and it should ideally win most of the seats.
“The INDIA Alliance will sweep Tamil Nadu. The people of Tamil Nadu are smart, educated and politically wise to reject divisive politics," said Rajaa.
INDIA is short for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, a multi-party alliance led by the Indian National Congress.
AIADMK has taken a significant risk by deciding to go alone. It will be hoping to retain much of its vote share, but a sharp fall will weaken the party significantly.
As for BJP, Annamalai is confident of a strong showing. “I have been on the ground. I can feel the change. People want BJP in Tamil Nadu," he told Mint during his campaign in Coimbatore.
Going forward, a sharp increase in its vote share will make BJP a strong force in state politics, irrespective of whether it manages to win a few seats. “It will establish the fact that DMK and the Dravidian parties are losing their grip over the Tamil electorate," said Gurumurthy.
There’s a lot at stake.
