Iran’s new president faces a reality check in New York

There is almost no prospect of any serious talks over sanctions until the U.S. election is out the way, Western diplomats say. He is unlikely to score meetings with many major European leaders or President Biden. And Western officials say they have seen scant evidence that the rise of Pezeshkian—a relative moderate in Iran’s system—has led to a shift in Iran’s policies since he took office in July.

With diplomatic breakthroughs unlikely, his trip will be largely viewed through the lens of his first General Assembly speech on Tuesday, hours after Biden’s address. He has the opportunity to set a new tone for Iran’s foreign policy, a message Tehran hopes will bring dividends with Western capitals after November’s U.S. presidential election.

“I think Pezeshkian’s visit to New York is obviously going to be a huge public relations opportunity for Iran," said Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank. “But I don’t see this actually materializing in anything immediately tangible."

Much of Pezeshkian’s experienced foreign policy team was involved in crafting the 2015 nuclear deal, which lifted most international sanctions on Iran in exchange for tight but temporary restrictions on its nuclear program. They will seek to paint the new government as one that Western capitals can deal with and to probe what diplomatic opportunities may eventually land on the table after the U.S. election.

At his first press conference last week, Pezeshkian stressed the themes he will likely repeat on Tuesday: that Iran is ready to work with international partners to reach agreements on its nuclear program and is open for engagement with Washington, but it won’t be cowed into adjusting its regional or security policies.

“We don’t like to have disagreements with others, but we also don’t like someone to force us and go under pressure," he said.

Adnan Tabatabai, chief executive of the Carpo think tank in Germany, said that Pezeshkian appears to have leeway from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on major security issues, to pursue his diplomatic outreach. Since taking office, the new president has sought internal consensus and worked with conservative political forces.

“It is clear that the supreme leader has also realized that the level of tensions with the West and in particular the U.S., is making life very difficult for progress internally, particularly on the economic front," Tabatabai said.

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, a conflict-resolution think tank, said the Iranian team will be looking to use New York to get a picture of what diplomatic options will be possible if the Democrats retain control of the White House.

The new Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is a well-known figure in Western capitals who played a key role in negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal. Araghchi recently acknowledged that the 2015 agreement can’t be revived in its original form, a position echoed by current U.S. and European officials.

After the U.S. left the nuclear deal in 2018, Iran made huge advances on its nuclear program. While Iran claims its work is purely for civilian purposes, it has produced almost four nuclear weapons’ worth of near-weapons-grade material, according to the U.N. atomic agency.

U.S. officials have said they want to resolve the issue of Iran’s nuclear program through diplomacy and, over the past 18 months, there have been sporadic indirect talks, usually mediated by Oman, between the two sides on regional and nuclear issues.

Michael Singh, a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the U.S. National Security Council, said that with Washington seeking to avoid conflict with Tehran, Pezeshkian’s “charm offensive" might meet a receptive audience.

“Their options for dealing with Iran have narrowed considerably as Tehran’s nuclear program and troublemaking in the region and beyond have advanced," he said.

In many respects, Iran has gained from the regional turmoil that has taken place since Hamas’ attacks on Israel nearly a year ago. Tehran has positioned itself as a champion of the Palestinian cause and used its axis of pro-Iranian militia groups to show its regional reach—launching attacks on Israel, U.S. forces and maritime transport in the Red Sea. It has deepened its cooperation with Russia and China and soothed tensions with some neighbors, including re-establishing in spring 2023 what remains a fragile formal relationship with Saudi Arabia.

Its diplomatic positioning has helped dent the impact of Western sanctions. But they still weigh heavily. Annual inflation remains above 30%, the economy remains soft and U.S. sanctions mean Iran still struggles to get hard currency for its oil sales.

Some U.S. officials see a regional and nuclear deal with Iran as a likely goal if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected. They are hoping the threat of a European-led snapback of all sanctions suspended under the nuclear deal will prod Tehran to the table. That snapback option can only be used until October 2025.

Vaez said Iran is likely open to a series of limited or interim agreements that can bring specific economic benefits for certain steps to limit Iran’s nuclear activities or possibly set red lines for Iran’s regional actions.

Yet the Iranian president could face a very different situation if Donald Trump returns to the White House. While some Iranian officials think that Trump might be tempted by a big new deal with Tehran, the former president has given little indication he won’t seek to restore his maximum-pressure sanctions policy.

With those uncertainties looming, Iran’s leadership has dug in on strategies it has been pursuing in recent years.

U.S. and European officials said earlier this month that Iran has sent ballistic missiles to Russia for the first time, despite repeated warnings from Western capitals not to do so.

Tehran continues to back its militia allies to target Israel and U.S. forces in the region, and the U.N. atomic agency reported in late August that Iran expanded its stock of highly enriched uranium to record levels.

Outgoing European Council President Charles Michel met the Iranian president in New York on Monday and told him the relationship between the EU and Iran was “at its lowest point ever," according to a diplomat present.

Iran’s decision to send ballistic missiles to Russia underlines that the regime isn’t relying on Pezeshkian’s diplomatic ambitions and that the leadership will prioritize its goals over the president’s if they clash. The U.S. and European countries have imposed sanctions on Iran over the decision.

Pezeshkian sought to distance himself from the missile transfer last week, saying it hadn’t taken place on his watch, although U.S. officials have disputed that timeline. That, said Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign-policy program at the Brookings Institution, underscores who calls the shots and who will ultimately frame the diplomatic outcomes with Iran.

“I think Pezeshkian is effectively irrelevant to any of these decisions," she said. “He may be an interlocutor but he is not a decision maker."

Write to Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com