Kim Jong Un is embracing Russia for his regime’s survival

By recently sending thousands of troops to the Russian front lines, Kim has opened a new chapter for his cash-strapped regime. The move thrusts the “Hermit Kingdom" into global affairs in a way that it has shunned since the 1950-53 Korean War.

By going all-in on Russia, Kim is forging an unproven—and even more brazen—path to achieve regime security, advance his country’s nuclear program and win economic relief. Seemingly eroded, for now, are the traditional levers of detente with South Korea, nuclear talks with the U.S. and widespread diplomatic support from Europe.

Now, much of Kim’s ambitions hinge on the burgeoning military symbiosis with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In return for the troops, munitions and missiles, Kim has already pocketed Moscow’s protection at the United Nations and an uptick in cross-border trade. Officials from the U.S., South Korea and elsewhere also believe Kim has asked Russia for help to improve North Korea’s top weaponry—much of which is based on Soviet-era systems.

“It’s North Korea 2.0 that Kim is pursuing," said Paik Woo-yeal, a political science and diplomacy professor at South Korea’s Yonsei University. “Kim is reshaping his strategy of regime survival."

Kim’s gambit could backfire. North Korean soldiers might fail on the battlefield or defect, causing him problems with Putin or back at home. Russia’s all-encompassing commitment could fade should fighting with Ukraine end. Pyongyang’s standing across Europe, an important bridge partner with the U.S., is now damaged.

But North Korea, in many ways, couldn’t keep repeating the same old approach—and not just because it had failed to yield results. The U.S., Western Europe and its Indo-Pacific allies swung behind combating Chinese aggression, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the weaponization of global supply chains. Those new partnerships could coalesce around the Kim regime’s nuclear threat, too.

Meanwhile, Pyongyang’s traditional foes in Seoul, Washington and Tokyo increased joint military exercises and started sharing missile-tracking data. The U.S. provided deeper input to South Korea on potential American nuclear use in the event of a North Korean attack.

“Kim Jong Un understands that his strategic environment is changing rapidly," said Evans Revere, a former senior State Department official who focused on Asia. “For Kim, the risks are worth the reward of getting the tools, technologies and the support he will need to survive in the hostile environment he anticipates."

Kim’s Emboldened Era

Kim’s closer alignment with Putin—which included the signing of a mutual defense pact in June—puts new pressures on Washington-Seoul relations at a sensitive time, security experts say. As many as 8,000 North Korean troops near the Russian front lines could soon enter into combat, U.S. officials say.

The dispatch of North Korean soldiers to Russia now increases the odds of reciprocal support should fighting ever break out on the Korean Peninsula. Seoul officials worry that Moscow could assist Pyongyang realize breakthroughs in nuclear-powered submarines, long-range missiles and reconnaissance satellites.

Inter-Korean ties sit at their lowest level in years. North Korea declared their southern neighbors as the country’s new No. 1 enemy in January. It has showered South Korea with trash-filled balloons this year and recently blew up roads and railroads that once linked the two countries.

North Korea carried out an intercontinental ballistic missile test on Thursday, its first such long-range launch in nearly a year. That led to a combined air drill over the weekend from the U.S., South Korea and Japan south of the Korean Peninsula, including at least one B-1B bomber, Seoul’s military said.

“Kim feels emboldened to behave in this way knowing he has support from Russia," said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, the KF-VUB Korea chair at the Brussels School of Governance.

South Koreans remain convinced that Kim will never surrender his nuclear weapons, according to polling. That has given rise to calls for South Korea to pursue a nuclear program of its own—an idea that a growing number of conservative lawmakers have entertained.

North Korea can use its newfound closeness with Russia to create conflict that tests the trilateral alliance of Japan, South Korea and the U.S. by exposing a weakness in their communication or unity, said Jean H. Lee, a visiting fellow at the East-West Center, a Honolulu-based think tank.

“In Kim’s eyes, all tension is good tension at a time when he is seeking to create anxiety around the Korean Peninsula," Lee said.

‘Crossing the Rubicon’

Kim was a fresh-faced 27-year-old when he started his reign atop North Korea. He often promised to revitalize the economy. His best shot to shed sanctions dissipated after talks broke down abruptly in Hanoi at the 2019 nuclear summit with then-President Donald Trump.

That triggered a profound shift from Pyongyang. In January 2020, Kim implored North Koreans to brace for life under sanctions—de-emphasizing the importance of dealmaking with Washington. The pandemic then further isolated the cash-strapped regime, which sealed off its borders over virus fears.

Kim found a willing partner in Putin after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. North Korea was one of just five countries to support the Russian war at the U.N.

The embrace of Russia brings geostrategic value to Kim beyond money, energy and technology by diversifying itself away from Chinese support, said Daniel Russel, a former top State Department official for Asia during the Obama administration. Now Beijing runs the risk of driving Kim further into Putin’s arms, should it seek to shape Pyongyang’s behavior or demand restraint, he said.

“Kim has put himself in the driver’s seat and can run something of a bidding war for his favor," said Russell, now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

The Ukraine war is now not only existential for Putin but also Kim, who has bet North Korea’s future on a tighter alliance with Russia, said Victor D. Cha, the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in a recent analysis called “Crossing the Rubicon."

North Korea’s potential combat role could spur more aid to Ukraine from South Korea, Cha wrote, and lead to long-term consequences for Pyongyang’s relationships in Europe. “North Korea’s decision to send troops to kill Europeans will not easily be forgotten in European capitals," he wrote.

Write to Timothy W. Martin at Timothy.Martin@wsj.com and Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com