Ukraine war lands Europe’s leaders in a battle of wills

The rift between Germany and many of its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies, including the U.S., over whether to supply Kyiv with German-made Leopard 2 tanks reflects continuing differences among Western leaders over the stakes and risks of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Military experts disagree on how essential the Leopard 2 tanks are for Ukrainian troops, but the tanks have become a political symbol for whether Europe is willing to back Ukraine enough to win.

Germany’s cautious approach to arming Kyiv, reflecting both domestic politics and a fear of Russian nuclear escalation, is coming under pressure from countries in Northern and Eastern Europe that feel a greater sense of urgency as Russia and Ukraine both prepare for expected offensives after winter. Some countries also are worried that Europe is counting too much on continued U.S. support for Ukraine, which could succumb to shifting sands in U.S. domestic politics unless Ukraine can achieve a breakthrough.

While Congress has already authorized a massive funding package for this year, Republican opposition to further billions for Kyiv could complicate further military aid beyond that—and next year’s presidential election might lead to a change in policy. That helps explain the drive by the U.K., Poland and others to accelerate Europe’s military contribution. Germany’s insistence on waiting for the U.S. to send Abrams main battle tanks before it releases Leopards also has irritated France, which has long argued Europe needs to do more for its own security.

Only harsh battlefield reality will show whether the flow of Western arms and ammunition, including billions of dollars’ worth of weapons pledged at Friday’s meeting of defense officials at the U.S.’s Ramstein Air Base in Germany, is enough to hold off Russia’s next big push or allow Ukraine to take back more of it territory.

What is clear is that Europe’s leaders have won economic and political breathing space to agree on a more decisive strategy, if they want one.

Only a few months ago, many European governments feared they might not be able to sustain their policies of supporting Ukraine and sanctioning Russia for much longer. An energy crunch after Russia choked off natural-gas deliveries threatened to plunge Europe into a deep recession and prompt backlashes in societies struggling to pay for heating and light.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long sought to foster divisions within and between Europe’s democracies, seeing their unsteady political resolve as their weak point as he tries to restore Russia’s geopolitical clout. His strategy of using winter to inflict pain via an energy shortage isn’t working out, however. Europe has managed to find alternative energy supplies, gas prices are tumbling, and the region’s changing climate is delivering another mild winter.

“Russia is losing the energy war. ‘General Winter’ defected months ago," said François Heisbourg, special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris.

The prospect of recession in Europe is receding as a result. “We’ve been surprised by how resilient the economy has been," said Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics in London. It has taken a mixture of luck and effort, he said, with the weather aiding efforts to cut energy consumption and governments spending heavily to shelter households and industry from high bills. With countries rushing to build new energy infrastructure, “there’s a reasonable chance there won’t be another price shock like 2022," he said.

In Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, last year’s gas-price increase dealt a heavy blow to energy-intensive industries such as metallurgy and chemicals. But other areas of German industry are recovering, thanks to the easing of the global supply-chain constraints that followed the Covid-19 pandemic. An improving global outlook, including in China, also bodes well for German exports, economists say.

Inflation has led to protests, pay disputes and strikes in many European countries, but it hasn’t undermined public support for helping Ukraine. An overwhelming majority of voters in all of Europe’s larger countries back the policy of arming Kyiv, financing its budget and sanctioning Moscow, according to a poll of 26,000 respondents by the European Union’s Eurobarometer survey series in December.

Only in a handful of smaller EU countries, including Greece and Slovakia, do majorities oppose the policy. Even in Hungary, whose leader Viktor Orban has blocked weapons shipments and castigated sanctions, most people approve of the EU’s efforts to arm Ukraine and sanction Russia, the poll said. All told, three in four EU citizens approve of the bloc’s support for Ukraine; just 7% strongly disapprove.

Few major European countries are scheduled to hold national elections this year, further strengthening leaders’ freedom of action. The main exception is Poland, where public opinion is overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine.

“There isn’t mounting pressure from opposition on governments. The lack of a domestic pushback raises the question of why they’re not doing more," said Nathalie Tocci, head of the Institute of International Affairs in Rome. Fewer voices in Europe are now calling for negotiations with Mr. Putin, because Russia’s continuing escalation of its war against Ukraine shows he is pursuing a military victory, not a peace deal, Ms. Tocci said.

Ukraine is appealing for faster military aid, saying that Western caution is costing Ukrainian lives. European countries that want to accelerate arms deliveries, including the U.K., warn that the war risks becoming a long and bloody stalemate unless Ukraine’s defenders can deal the Russian invasion force a decisive blow.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly said the aim is to prevent Russia from winning, rather than to ensure that Ukraine can win. He is finding himself increasingly isolated among European leaders, with even French President Emmanuel Macron recently calling for Ukrainian victory. Mr. Scholz’s caution over war aims has added to longstanding mistrust of Berlin in Central and Eastern Europe, where many officials blame Germany’s years of efforts to accommodate Russia for encouraging its invasion of Ukraine.

Frustration with Berlin in other capitals has overshadowed Germany’s substantial deliveries of arms and ammunition: It is one of Ukraine’s main military backers in Europe, along with the U.K., although the U.S. continues to dominate.

German officials have cited a range of reasons for not approving Leopard 2 deliveries, from logistics and public opinion to the risk of nuclear war with Russia. Mr. Scholz and his aides have repeatedly said Berlin could agree to send Leopards only if the U.S. opted to send Abrams tanks, which the Biden administration has said are impractical for Ukraine. On Friday, Germany’s new defense minister said U.S. tanks wouldn’t have to be provided at the same time as the German-made tanks.

Berlin’s repeated reticence over which weapons to give Ukraine mirrors its handling of some previous European crises. During the near-collapse of the EU’s common currency, the euro, in 2010-12, Mr. Scholz’s predecessor Angela Merkel focused on reassuring nervous domestic audiences, and on the possible risks of doing too much, while most of Europe as well as Washington clamored for more decisive action. Once again, many observers now expect Berlin to lift its resistance at the last moment under massive international pressure.

“If Germany doesn’t give in, you’ll have a major crisis in NATO," said Mr. Heisbourg.