Was the military uprising a coup or a hoax? Bolivians aren’t sure

After President Luis Arce confronted the leader of the dissident officers at the presidential palace in a dramatic scene captured on social media, the soldiers retreated and order was restored, without the fatalities of the many coups that have marked Bolivian history.

Sixteen military officers and a university professor were arrested for allegedly plotting the rebellion since May, government officials said Thursday. Among those held are two high-ranking commanders the government identified as ringleaders, General Juan José Zúñiga, the former commander of the army who Arce confronted, and Vice Admiral Juan Arnés, commander of Bolivia’s navy.

Hector Arce Zaconeta, Bolivia’s ambassador to the Organization of American States in Washington, in a speech Thursday credited “the brave and decisive actions by President Luis Arce to directly and personally confront the insurrectionist general."

But what could have been a celebratory moment for Arce had by Thursday been overshadowed by various campaigns to control the narrative. Questions emerged over why Zúñiga, who had been close to the president, would turn on him so suddenly as part of what appeared to have been a poorly planned, even comedic plot.

“People now believe the narrative that this is now a fake coup, that this was all staged," said Eduardo Gamarra, who tracks Bolivia at Florida International University and grew up in Bolivia at a time of numerous coups. “So the government is having a very, very hard time."

Among those raising doubts was a former president, Carlos Mesa, Senate President Andronico Rodríguez and Samuel Doria Medina, a businessman and former presidential candidate who is among the more prominent leaders in the opposition.

“This erratic act by a military man has left Bolivians confused," Doria Medina said. “We ask for a deep investigation on what happened so we know what really transpired and can establish responsibility."

The Arce administration on Thursday sought to show it remained in control of the levers of power while looking to quash accusations from those who claimed that the uprising might have been orchestrated to boost the president’s low popularity and distract from the country’s economic challenges.

“I strongly reject those kinds of assertions, which are totally reckless, because they go against our state policies to preserve our democracy," said Maria Prada, a senior aide to Arce.

Prada said she was with the president and cabinet members in a meeting on the 22nd floor of the nearby presidential residence Wednesday in La Paz when they saw from their window armored vehicles approaching the Murillo Plaza. She said Arce began phoning Zúñiga but the calls went unanswered.

The revolt had been set in motion with the deployment of a few dozen soldiers and armored vehicles to the plaza, where the presidential palace and Congress are located. Traveling in one of the vehicles, Zúñiga smashed into the historic doors of the palace—known as the Burned Palace because it was set on fire in an unsuccessful 1875 coup—as soldiers breached the building.

When Zúñiga emerged, he was quickly challenged by a president who has been publicly criticized for being indecisive.

“If you respect the military chain of command and are a good military man," Arce told Zúñiga, “then withdraw all these forces at this moment. That’s an order."

Bolivia has weathered dozens of coups, and the president’s actions and the end of the uprising just three hours after it began was welcomed. Opposition leaders on the right and left as well as the U.S. and other governments, condemned the mutiny.

And it provided Bolivians with another look at Arce, who, until becoming president, had been known as a bookish technocrat and former economy minister.

“That’s the photo op you want," said Jim Shultz, author of books on Bolivia who closely follows Bolivian politics. “Instead of looking like a technocratic president over an economy in trouble, he’s now a defender of democracy."

But politicians, analysts and ordinary Bolivians—many of whom recall how there was once a board game here called “Coup"—wonder why commanders would have launched a planned overthrow without the support of civilians, lawmakers and the press. They also ask why Zúñiga—when facing off with the president inside the palace and backed by soldiers—didn’t at that moment detain the leader.

Zúñiga’s odd actions in recent days also drew scrutiny.

On Monday, the general had given an interview to Jimena Antelo of the “No Lie" televised talk show and railed against the powerful former president, Evo Morales, who had helped Arce rise to power but now opposes him and wants to run for president next year.

Calling Morales a power-hungry liar, Zúñiga said he would stand up against him and even arrest him if needed.

“That Señor can never again be president of this country," Zúñiga said on “No Lie," a show whose host is allied with the government. Earlier in the day, in a radio interview, Morales had directed criticism at the general, saying that Zúñiga planned to kill him, without offering evidence

The next day, Tuesday, officials said that Zúñiga had been relieved of duty but no one was named in his place. By Thursday, the general, officers who supported him and soldiers and police who Arce Zaconeta, the ambassador to the Organization of American States, said numbered 200 were rebelling in the heart of La Paz.

People filming live in the plaza during the revolt and later when Zúñiga retreated captured tantalizing and contradictory comments from him.

He said in the plaza that he was “protesting abuses" and called for the government to free political prisoners. Hours later, as he was being detained, he said that that coup was actually orchestrated by the president.

Arce had earlier asked Zúñiga for his help “to prepare something to lift my popularity," Zúñiga said.

“I asked him, ‘Should we take out the armored (vehicles)?’" Zúñiga said.

“‘Take them out,’ he told me," the general recounted.

In a news conference late Wednesday, after Zúñiga comments were ricocheting across social media, Prada held up a document that she said was Zúñiga’s confession to leading the coup. Authorities charged Zúñiga on terrorism and rebellion charges.

Zúñiga told investigators the plan failed because military and police chiefs who had been expected to take part in the uprising didn’t show up at the plaza, according to Prada. She said the government was committed to bringing all the conspirators to justice. “There will not be any impunity," she said.

On Thursday, talking to Colombia’s Blu Radio, she said that Zúñiga’s comments were “a last play to try to evade responsibility he had as head of the failed coup d’état."

Rafael Archondo, a Bolivian political analyst and professor at the Ibero-American University Puebla in Mexico, said Wednesday’s deployment on the Murillo Plaza was “the most televised coup in Bolivian history and that surely feeds the spectacle."

But he said that Arce “is in a very weak and compromised position." He said that “in other countries, a ball of support like this would give a leader lots of oxygen, but in Bolivia it’s worth maybe just a breath."

Over the last year, Arce has seen lawmakers from his Movement Toward Socialism party shift their allegiance to Morales, leaving the president with minority support in Congress.

An economist trained at the U.K.’s University of Warwick, Arce has seen Bolivia’s natural gas reserves dry up, stripping the government of an income source that had fueled Morales’s government from 2006 to 2019. The country, once a major gas exporter to neighbors, is now a net importer of fuels such as diesel.

And despite big spending on studies and promoting mining, the government’s plans to attract development of vast lithium reserves have failed to increase production.

Facing critical dollar shortages, the government last year sold about half of the gold held in Central Bank vaults. As of April, the bank’s reserves—mostly gold—stood at $1.9 billion, down 41% from a year earlier, according to official data.

Write to Juan Forero at juan.forero@wsj.com and Kejal Vyas at kejal.vyas@wsj.com