Mint Primer: A robot for every 3 humans: What happens to us?
Summary
The number of humanoid robots in use could reach three billion by 2060, while the global population is projected at 10.07 billion that year.
The number of humanoid robots in use could reach three billion by 2060. With the global population projected at 10.07 billion that year (source: Worldometer), that’s one robot for every three of us. What might this shift mean for human employment, identity and purpose?
What do the stars foretell about robots?
Humanoid robot ownership could touch 3 billion units by 2060, says a new Bank of America (BofA) report. Midjourney founder David Holz predicts 1 billion humanoids on Earth by the 2040s and 100 billion in the solar system by the 2060s—an idea endorsed by Elon Musk. Sun Microsystems co-founder Vinod Khosla sees 1 billion bipedal robots by 2040.
Also read | Elon Musk unveils plans to launch Tesla robotaxis and humanoid robots in Saudi Arabia
Morgan Stanley forecasts sales of 900,000 units by 2030. Macquarie expects 6.3 million robots and a $139 billion market by 2035. Citigroup projects a $7 trillion market by 2050, while Goldman Sachs sees a $38 billion market by 2035 as robot density surges.
Why are they all so bullish?
As human labour costs rise, humanoid robots are becoming cheaper—and global investments are surging, from $308 million in 2020 to $1.1 billion in 2024, according to Bain & Co. These robots can now walk, jump and are getting smarter with advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and generative AI. BofA predicts they’ll take 20% of industrial and 50% of service jobs by 2060, and even outnumber cars. SNS Insider values the market at $2.21 billion in 2023, projected to reach $76.97 billion by 2032, with Japan, China and the US leading adoption in elder care, defence, retail, manufacturing and logistics.
Also read | Musk’s humanoid robots are here but they won’t help around the house
How much do humanoid robots cost?
BofA says humanoid robot hardware will cost $35,000 per unit by end-2025, dropping to $13,000-17,000 by 2030-2035 due to scale and improved components. Meanwhile, the robots-as-a-service (RaaS) model that offers access via cloud-based subscriptions is making robots more affordable for smaller firms that can’t bear high upfront costs.
How will this impact the workforce?
Bain & Co. expects robots to handle a wide range of physical tasks at costs equal to or lower than human labour within five years. Raising a child costs $100,000-300,000 and takes 20 years in the US (RethinkX), while a humanoid robot could be deployed in a year for the price of a budget car. By 2035, a million robots could enter the workforce for just $10 billion. Macquarie predicts robots may become as essential to families as cars, with widespread home use expected from the late 2030s to 2050s.
Also read | Meta reportedly begins investment in humanoid robots, setting up a showdown with Elon Musk's Tesla
A C-3PO in every home sounds pretty good...
Something like the Star Wars droid could be yours for a price. As the young prioritize work-life balance, firms may get humanoid robots to fill labour and skill gaps. But AI-powered humanoids such as Tesla’s Optimus, Boston Dynamics’ Atlas, Xiaomi’s CyberOne and India’s Vyommitra raise questions on accountability, legal status (Hanson Robotics’ Sophia is a Saudi citizen), rights and the potential for bias. Futurist Ray Kurzweil believes humans could achieve a million-fold intelligence by 2045 with chips embedded in our brains.
topics
