China and U.S. both eye breakthrough EV technology

With a booming electric-vehicle market at home, Chinese battery makers are the giants of the industry. In the first four months of this year, just two companies from the country—Contemporary Amperex Technology, or CATL, and BYD—already have more than half of the global EV battery market between them, according to SNE Research. More crucially, Chinese manufacturers also dominate the supply chain for battery materials. China accounted for nearly 90% of cathode active material capacity globally and more than 97% for anodes, according to the International Energy Agency.

For countries such as the U.S. that wish to break China’s dominance in the automotive and power technology of the future, the only hope would be a scientific breakthrough that could rejig the battery supply chain with different materials and components. New technology wouldn’t replace existing lithium-ion batteries, which have been around for five decades, but could provide alternative options.

There are a few potential candidates. Sodium-ion batteries look like the most viable alternative, but CATL and BYD have already massively ramped up their capacity. More than 90% of new supply announced through 2030 will come from China, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. That is despite the fact that the utilization rate of sodium battery plants is still fairly low.

One advantage of sodium over lithium is that it is far more abundant. When lithium prices went ballistic two years ago, sodium batteries looked like they also would provide a cheaper alternative. With lithium prices having fallen back to earth, sodium’s cost advantage might have disappeared. Nevertheless, sodium offers a potential choice to hedge against volatile lithium prices. However, sodium batteries have lower energy density and might not be suitable for longer-range EVs. They might be a better choice for energy storage systems or low-end EVs. That is especially important for China, where smaller EVs with lower ranges have been popular with consumers.

Another option to boost energy density is to replace graphite anodes with silicon, making batteries lighter and able to store more energy. That could potentially challenge China’s dominance in graphite. Japan’s Panasonic said this past year it would purchase silicon anode materials from U.K. startup Nexeon. U.S. startup Group 14, backed by Microsoft and Porsche, also has a joint venture with Korean battery maker SK Group. Benchmark expects silicon anode capacity to more than triple this year.

But the technological Holy Grail has to be solid-state batteries—seemingly always a few years away. They replace liquid electrolytes with solid materials, which could make them safer, faster-charging and able to store much more energy than lithium batteries.

The technology still isn’t there, but it is getting closer. Startups QuantumScape and Solid Power, for example, have started the qualification process with automakers, which could take four to six years. These companies went public with much fanfare a few years ago, but their share prices have dropped 90% or more from their peaks. Solid-state batteries offer many advantages over lithium ones. They will likely cost much more, though—especially at the outset.

And China isn’t sleeping on this opportunity. Beijing will provide 6 billion yuan, equivalent to nearly $830 million, to companies including CATL and BYD to research and develop solid-state batteries, according to domestic media. EV maker NIO said it plans to produce cars using semisolid state technology, which might still contain liquid electrolytes.

China’s battery supremacy looks secure for now, but new technology could throw in a wild card for Western companies seeking to catch up.

Write to Jacky Wong at jacky.wong@wsj.com