Europe’s Arms Revival Pits Homegrown Wares Against US Stalwarts

Europe’s arms manufacturers are duking it out with American rivals to win their slice of the region’s fast-growing military pie, as governments embark on an unprecedented expansion of defense spending.

The jockeying between European and US firms was in the spotlight at the Paris Air Show this week, where talk of fighter jets, drones and missiles led the conversation, instead of the commercial aircraft orders that typically dominate the expo. 

Defense and security took up about 45% of the footprint on the show’s floor — a “strong increase” from two years ago, its organizers told Defense News. 

Behind the shift is a growing realization in Europe that the region needs to become more self-reliant for its security, as threats escalate and the US signals a retreat under President Donald Trump. War has raged in Ukraine for more than three years, exposing the menace posed by Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and Israel attacked Iran just days before the meeting began, putting countries in the Middle East more on edge.

After 80 years of peace, European nations haven’t developed the “culture of defense” seen in the US, Russia and Israel, said Roberto Cingolani, chief executive officer of Italian state-backed defense contractor Leonardo SpA.

“We were not as well prepared because we almost forgot that war could happen,” Cingolani said. “We were more used to peacekeeping missions where you don’t develop a real defense system, you develop an assistance system. And our army now is making a lot of effort for the so-called capacity boost.”

With Trump demanding that allies dedicate a greater share of their resources to defense, European NATO spending is expected to double by the end of the decade to as high as €800 billion in 2030, according to McKinsey.

NATO leaders meet next week at the Hague to discuss raising current spending targets.

“The surge in European defense funding is significant,” Hugues Lavandier, leader of McKinsey’s aerospace and defense practice in Europe, said in an interview. 

France’s Dassault Aviation wasn’t subtle about seizing the opportunity, touting its Rafale warplane as “the choice of sovereignty” and conducting a demonstration above the makeshift chalets at Le Bourget airfield. 

Lockheed Martin Corp. put its F-35 through the paces as well. At least half of Europe’s 13 current customers for the fighter jet are talking publicly about buying more, said Frank St. John, Lockheed’s chief operating officer, with other countries seeking US approval for purchases. By decade’s end, Lockheed expects to have around 700 of its fighters on the continent, he said in an interview. 

“We’re headed into a period over the next three to five years of increasing budgets,” St. John said, including in the US, Japan and Australia.

According to the Financial Times, the US firm is also seeking a piece of the UK’s Iron Dome-type missile defense project.

Boeing Co. had a muted commercial presence at the show because of the Air India crash involving one of its 787 Dreamliners last week. The US company sees an opportunity to expand in European defense with autonomous aircraft like its MQ-28 Ghost Bat drone, designed to fly on reconnaissance and tactical missions in tandem with crewed aircraft, Bernd Peters, vice president of business development and strategy, told reporters.

American defense contractors are increasingly willing to forge deals with European counterparts to better make the case for their wares. Honeywell International Inc. said it plans to acquire more companies in the region and expand in the UK, Germany and Czech Republic.

Lockheed is raising its investment with Rheinmetall AG to jointly develop missiles and rockets. The German supplier inked a separate drone-technology partnership with US startup Anduril Industries Inc. — underscoring the boom in demand for future weaponry. 

Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is emblematic of the changes afoot. Its armed forces are shrinking as soldiers age, hampering the biggest push to re-arm since World War II. The government has lifted caps on defense spending, clearing the way for hundreds of billions of euros in expenditures. 

Given the recent strains on the US relationship, many in Europe want to see the money allocated at home rather than with American companies that have long supplied NATO.

“The time has come to buy European products,” Michael Schoellhorn, who heads Airbus SE’s Munich-based defense unit, said in an interview. “That way we not only gain higher tax revenues but also the technology. If you just buy, the money is gone.”

But Europe needs weapons now, and its companies are struggling to gear up the factories and supply chains that would fulfill the demand.

To that end, France and Spain renewed their commitment to the troubled A400M military transport aircraft. Airbus, Thales and Leonardo are working to unify their satellite and space operations, and Leonardo, working with Rheinmetall, is trying to vacuum up the military vehicle business of Italy’s Iveco Group NV. 

Yet it’s not certain whether these deals will ultimately go through, and a public quarrel between Airbus and Dassault Aviation, its French partner on Europe’s FCAS Future Combat Air System, served as a reminder of the challenges going forward: Europe’s defense industry is currently seen as too fragmented and driven by nationalistic priorities to truly compete with American, Russian or Chinese rivals. 

For the current Eurofighter warplane, Airbus is aligned with Leonardo and the UK’s BAE Systems, competing against the F-35 and Dassault Aviation’s Rafale. On the next-generation FCAS, the German and French governments have teamed Airbus with Dassault. 

It’s not easy to go from being a rival on a high stakes weapons program to becoming its partner on the next one, said Jean-Brice Dumont, head of air power at Airbus. 

“We have to make the ‘Europe of defense’ — it has to happen,” he said. But “you are having two competitors poised to marry, and that creates a natural ambiguity, a natural paradox.”

With assistance from Anthony Palazzo.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

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