Tesla’s EV Deliveries Are Seen Falling as Demand Erodes Sharply

(Bloomberg) -- Wall Street is reining in expectations for Tesla Inc. deliveries as the Elon Musk-run automaker struggles with waning consumer demand and the threat of reduced US federal incentives for electric vehicles.

Analysts at Oppenheimer on Friday cut their estimates for handovers this year and next, citing weak data out of China and Europe. With expectations for 1.63 million deliveries in 2025, the securities firm is projecting what would be the second straight annual decline. That’s below the 1.7 million average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

“The difficult work at Tesla is just beginning as the company starts to repair brand damage while executing on” a strategy centered on artificial intelligence and robotics, the analysts led by Colin Rusch said in a note.

Goldman Sachs analysts on Friday also cut their estimates for second-quarter handovers and the stock price target. In the note, the sell-side firm now expects 365,000 deliveries for the second quarter, down from a prior estimate of 410,000.

The diminished expectations are the latest blow to Tesla, which is confronting flagging sales, a consumer backlash to Musk’s politicking and, now, a feud between the chief executive officer and President Donald Trump. The automaker’s shares tumbled 14% Thursday as the pair traded barbs and threats. This week marked the stock’s worst weekly decline — down 15% — since 2023.

Tesla is preparing to launch a robotaxi service in Austin this month, as Musk increasingly bets the company’s future on autonomy.

Tesla sales have had a tough start to the year, after 2024 marked the first time in over a decade that the EV maker failed to grow annual deliveries. This year has brought increased polarization around the brand due to Musk’s short-lived involvement in the Trump administration and controversial political views. Sales were also impacted by a shutdown to certain production lines amid a refresh of the Model Y, its most popular vehicle.   

In Europe, Tesla remains down in key markets. Meanwhile, in the US Tesla sales in the first four months of 2025 are down about 18,700 vehicles, or 9.7% from a year ago, according to Cox Automotive, which reflects lower Model Y sales even after the company released its latest version.

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