IMD sees normal rainfall this season

India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted a normal monsoon this year, offering hope to millions of farmers a day after private forecaster Skymet warned of below-normal rainfall following the development of the El Nino weather pattern linked to droughts.

The government forecaster said a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and lower northern hemisphere snow cover would likely counter the effects of the El Niño condition.

The southwest monsoon, which usually hits the southern tip of Kerala around 1 June and retreats in September, is expected to total 96% of the long-term average this year with an error margin of 5%, M. Ravichandran, secretary at the ministry of earth sciences, told reporters on Tuesday.

The long-term average (LPA) of rainfall is the precipitation recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like a month or season) average over a long period like 30 years or 50 years, according to the IMD definition.

IMD’s prediction comes as a relief to farmers across the country, who depend heavily on monsoon rain for irrigation. A normal monsoon could help boost farm incomes and support economic growth. Bountiful rain will also help increase crop output and lower food prices, supporting the government’s efforts to curb inflation.

IMD defines average, or normal, rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season. According to the first forecast of IMD on monsoon 2023, some regions of northwest India and parts of west-central states and some pockets of north-eastern regions of the country are likely to get normal to below normal rainfall. IMD will issue an updated forecast for the monsoon season in the last week of May. “These are very preliminary forecasts. A forecast is only a conjecture, and this has no bearing on the crops. The actual monsoon spread is important, especially in areas with less access to irrigation facilities, which will be known only in June-September,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. Monsoon rainfall is critical for agriculture production, which accounts for about 18% of the economy and is the largest employer. Kharif or summer crops account for about half of India’s farm basket.

“A good monsoon is necessary for a good crop though the spread is more important. Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are the states that depend the most on monsoon for kharif crops. This will determine not only the output of crops but also the health of rural demand,” Sabnavis said. “Currently, La Niña conditions have changed to neutral over the equatorial Pacific region, and El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the second half of the monsoon,” said IMD director-general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra. All El Niño years were not bad monsoon years in the past (1951-2022) years, he added. El Niño refers to a phase of warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. While the IMD has forecast a normal monsoon at 96% of long period average, the probability forecasts suggest a 51% chance of a below-normal or deficient monsoon, according to Aditi Nayar, chief economist and head of research and outreach at rating agency ICRA Ltd. The volume of rainfall, its timing and dispersion will crucially influence crop sowing and output, as well as prices, she said.

“In the event that the monsoon turns out to be below normal, we currently foresee a downside of up to 50 basis points to our GDP growth forecast of 6% for FY24,” Nayar said. Skymet on Monday predicted a below-average monsoon, saying the coming season is likely to bring only 94% of the rain the country usually gets from June to September.