Indian public policy think tank NITI Aayog's Chief Executive Officer (CEO), BVR Subrahmanyam, on Sunday, 25 May 2025, citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, said that India has overtaken Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy. The official IMF data of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025 marked India's position at $4.19 trillion based on the current prices.
“We are the fourth largest economy as I speak. We are a USD 4 trillion economy as I speak, and this is not my data. This is IMF data. India today is larger than Japan,” BVR Subrahmanyam told the media outlets at the 10th NITI Aayog Governing Council Meeting on Sunday.
Subrahmanyam also predicted that India may soon surpass Germany and become the third-largest economy in the world. “If we stick to, you know, what is being planned, what is being thought through, it's a matter of another 2, 2.5 to 3 years; we would become the third largest economy,” said the CEO.
According to the IMF data cited above, all the current GDP numbers are based on the 2025 data release. (Check IMF data here)
IMF also released its World Economic Outlook report in April 2025, which expects India to surpass Japan to take over the fourth-largest economy spot in 2025.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on 22 April 2025, predicted that India is set to overtake Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world in 2025.
India's nominal GDP is expected to rise to $4,287.017 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year, which is higher compared to the expectation for Japan's nominal GDP at $4,186.431 billion, according to the report.
According to Mint's earlier report, India was the fifth-largest economy worldwide until 2024. IMF's prediction also marks India as the fastest-growing major economy in the upcoming two years.
The WEO report also highlighted that the Indian economy is expected to grow at a “more stable” rate of 6.2 per cent in 2025 and 6.3 per cent in 2026, which makes it higher than its global and regional peers.
“For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas, but this rate is 0.3 percentage point lower than that in the January 2025 WEO Update on account of higher levels of trade tensions and global uncertainty,” according to the WEO report cited by Mint.