The Great Indian Tomato Mystery: Why your curry costs more than ever

The Government of India tabled the Economic Survey 2024-25 report on Friday, January 31, in Parliament ahead of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Union Budget presentation on February 1. The economic report card of India showed that due to the uneven monsoon, tomato, onion, and potato prices are hitting the average consumer's pockets hard. 

“Uneven monsoon-induced supply disruptions in certain regions caused price pressures, mainly in tomatoes and onions, contributing to higher inflation rates in vegetables and overall food inflation,” according to the survey report.

The report also highlighted that tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (TOP) are considered to be the most price-sensitive vegetables, which affect food inflation and the overall consumer price index (CPI) basket.

Economic data showed that the average food inflation rate in the first three quarters of the financial year 2024-25 was 6.5 per cent, which is 1.9 per cent lower than the current rate. 

The report also cited the average headline inflation at 4.2 per cent when excluding the TOP from the basket. However, the TOP prices have fuelled the food inflation hike.

“Tomato and onion prices have been drivers of food inflation, and consequently headline inflation in recent months,” said the report.

Cause of the price hike

Vegetable prices are affected by weather changes and are more volatile than those of food grains. Natural weather phenomena like cyclones, heavy rains, floods, thunderstorms, hailstorms, and droughts impact vegetable prices across the nation.

The report also cited India Meteorological Department (IMD) data and said that India witnessed heatwaves on 18 per cent of the days compared to 5 per cent of the days in 2020 and 2021. 

Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and Down to Earth (DTE) data cited in the report show that the total crop area damaged in 2024 was higher compared to the last two years because of extreme weather events in the nation.

“The increasing frequency of extreme weather events—specifically uneven and unseasonal rainfall and heat waves - impacts vegetable production, thereby increasing prices,” the government said. 

The report also addressed the fall in onion and tomato production in the last two years, attributing it to higher extreme weather events in major producing states.