Election Commission Results: Haryana, J&K exit polls go wrong again! BJP set for hat-trick, Congress poised to win in...

Election Commission Results 2024: The exit poll results for the Haryana Election gave the Congress an edge over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while several exit polls predicted a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir. Will these exit poll results prove right for Haryana and J&K? Will the BJP fail to score a hat-trick in Haryana? Will Independent candidates play kingmakers in J&K? Here's what the Election Commission's poll trends show:

The votes for the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections were counted on Tuesday, October 8. The results will be declared soon. The Election Commission result trends started coming in as soon as the counting started at 8 a.m. on Tuesday.

Who will win Haryana Elections 2024?

The official EC trends in Haryana contradict with most of the exit polls released on October 5. The exit poll results for the Haryana Assembly Elections had predicted a clean sweep for the Congress, ending the BJP's 10-year rule in the Hindi heartland. 

A political party needs to win at least 46 of the 90 assembly seats – or cross the halfway mark – to form government in the state.

The Axis My India exit polls predicted a clear majority for the Congress with 53-65 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly. It said the BJP may win 18-28 seats and the INLD-BSP alliance on 1-5 seats. It predicted a no-show for Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

Meanwhile, the Republic TV-Matrize poll showed that the Congress may get 55-62 seats out of 90, while the BJP is poised to win 18-24 seats. Dainik Bhaskar, in its poll survey, suggested that the Congress will get 44-54 seats, BJP 15-29, and others may get 4-9.

In contrast, the latest EC result trends projected a clean sweep for the ruling BJP on 48 seats. The BJP was trailing behind the Congress until a surprise turn-around gave Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party a boost. After approximately two hours of counting, the BJP gained the lead in the Haryana elections. Now, the BJP is ahead of the Congress on 48 seats, while the Congress was leading on 36 of the 90 seats, as of 12:30 pm.

Who will win J&K Elections 2024?

Most exit polls predicted a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir. However, the EC trends show a clear win for the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance. In J&K too, a political party needs 46 seats to form government in the Union Territory. There are 90 assembly constituencies in J&K.

The Congress and the NC contested the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections in an alliance against the BJP. Axis My India exit poll had announced that the BJP could win 24-34 seats (21% vote share) in J&K, while the NC-Congress-CPIM alliance may bag 35-45 seats (38% vote share). It predicted 4-6 seats (9% vote share) for Mehbooba Mufti's People's Democratic Party (PDP). This exit poll pegged NC's seat share at 24, Congress' at 14 and the CPIM at 0.5.

Meanwhile, Dainik Bhaskar had pegged the NC-Congress alliance at 35-40 and the BJP at 20-25. It showed that independent candidates may surpass the PDP, which may get 4-7 seats. Republic-Gulistan predicted 31-36 seats for the NC-Congress and 28-30 seats for the BJP. Gulistan also indicated a ‘kingmaker’ role for independent candidates who may end up with 19-23 seats and the PDP left with 5-7.

However, if Election Commission trends are to be believed, the Congress-NC could win the J&K Assembly elections with 51 seats. The Independent candidates are leading on seven seats, while the BJP stands way behind the majority mark, with 28 seats. The trends showed that Farooq Abdullah's NC may emerge as the single-largest party with 43 seats.

The final results for the Haryana, Jammu, and Kashmir Elections 2024 will be declared as soon as all the votes are counted.

Exit Poll Past Predictions

Exit poll prediction had gone horribly wrong in the Lok Sabha Elections 20204 when at least 10 exit polls predicted over 350 seats for the BJP-led NDA. However, the BJP won 240 out of 543 seats, while the Congress, with its INDIA bloc partner, emerged stronger. The Congress won 99 seats in the Lok Sabha polls this year.

In the 2014 Haryana Assembly Elections, while the average seats of the Congress and the BJP in the exit poll results were nearly accurate, the numbers were well off for the INLD. The Om Prakash Chautala-led party was projected to win an average of 27 seats, but fell short, securing only 19. The BJP won 47 seats, past the majority mark of 45 seats, the Congress won just 15 seats in the 90-member Assembly.

In 2019, exit poll results of India Today-Axis My India proved to be quite close to the final results for both the BJP and the Congress. India Today-Axis My India predicted 38 seats for the BJP and 36 for Congress, while other pollsters either overestimated the BJP or underestimated Congress. The BJP won 40 seats, down from seven seats and the Congress won 31 constituencies.