Will Haryana shocker impact Maharashtra elections? Should AAP & Congress unite to win Delhi? 3 key questions answered

The final Haryana Election Results 2024 came as a surprise for many. Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge and Bhupinder Hooda said the poll results were “unexpected” as “every exit poll and survey” showed that the Congress would win the polls. 

Congress was ahead of rival BJP in the initial hours of counting of votes. But the tables soon turned in favour of the BJP. Eventually, the BJP achieved a historic hat-trick in Haryana, winning a majority by bagging 48 seats. The Congress, meanwhile, secured 37 of the 90 assembly seats.

Many political leaders, including Congress ally Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut, blamed the party's “overconfidence” for the “shocking” loss in the state. Raut even indicated that results “would have been different” had the Congress allied with INDIA bloc partners such as the AAP and the Samajwadi Party.

Just a day after the Haryana election results, the AAP announced that it would contest the Delhi assembly elections alone–without an alliance with Congress. The Delhi assembly elections are expected to be held in February 2025. The state polls are also due in Maharashtra later this year.

These back-to-back political developments in different states have raised many questions: What would have happened if Congress had an alliance with AAP in Haryana? Would an alliance with AAP have favoured Congress in Haryana polls? Will the Haryana Election Results impact poll outcomes in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Delhi? Should the AAP and Congress join hands to win the Delhi Assembly Elections next year? 

Here's what political analyst and commentator Amitabh Tiwari said:

What if Congress had an alliance with AAP in Haryana? Would this have favoured the INDIA bloc partners in any way?

The Congress and the AAP are part of the Opposition's INDIA bloc, an alliance formed ahead of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 to take on the BJP. While the two parties fought polls together at the national level, they decided to go solo in many state elections–one was Haryana.

Amid speculations that an alliance with the AAP may have favoured the Congress in Haryana, political expert Amitabh Tiwari said the contrary. He said such an alliance wouldn't have helped any of the parties as the AAP's vote share in the Haryana elections was too low, so much so that it wouldn't have made any difference.

“Even if they had allied, it would not have made any difference. The AAP's presence is not prevalent in the state...,” Tiwari said. 

When asked if there was any division of votes in the Haryana polls, he said the damage to the Congress was more from the rebels. “There were 29 rebels who fought. 17 of them have damaged prospects of the Congress...so it's more coming from rebels rather than the AAP,” he said.

The AAP's vote share in the recently concluded Haryana polls was 1.17 per cent. Moreover, Arvind Kejriwal's party failed to win even a single in the state election that took place on October 5. 

Meanwhile, the Congress won 37 seats, nine short of the majority mark. A political party needs to win 46 of the total 90 assembly seats in Haryana. The BJP comfortably crossed this mark with 48 seats.

Will AAP or Congress benefit if they ally for the 2025 Delhi election?

Tiwari said the AAP needs to weigh whether there's anti-incumbency on the ground. “If they are confident they can hold on to their vote share, then an alliance is not required. But if it feels that there's anti-incumbency...and some of the MLAs could be under pressure, or some of the communities might shift to Congress...it's up to the AAP to make an assessment,” the political expert said.

He said that if there's an alliance, their vote banks may stay intact. He said an alliance would help, but it does not mean that the AAP would lose or win without Congress. He further noted that whether the alliance would help the AAP and Congress would be known only after the elections.

He, however, noted that whatever the Congress gets in Delhi will damage the AAP. 

“If the Congress polls more votes and the AAP loses, it means that the Congress has caused the AAP some damage,” he said. Tiwari explained that in Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party has grown at the expense of Congress, so whatever votes Congress gets, they will get at the expense of the AAP.

Delhi was a stronghold of the Congress for 15 years (between 1998 and 2013). The first election the AAP decided to contest was the Delhi Assembly election of December 2013. The AAP has since been in power.

The AAP first contested elections in Delhi in 2013, when it formed the government with the support of the Congress. In the 2013 Assembly polls, the AAP had won 28 seats, reducing the incumbent Congress to 8 seats, while the BJP bagged 31 seats. After dissolving the government in 49 days, the party returned with a majority after winning 67 out of 70 seats in 2015.

In the last Delhi Assembly Elections, held in 2020, the AAP won 62 of the 70 seats, while the BJP won only eight, and the Congress won none. The AAP retained a vote share of approximately 53.5 per cent. The Congress' vote share was just 4.63 per cent, while that of the BJP was 40.5 per cent.

Can Haryana Election results impact poll outcomes in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi?

Amitabh Tiwari explained that the impact is on two to three categories of people. One is the impact on the cadre. Political observers believe that the BJP's big victory in the Haryana elections may motivate its cadre for the upcoming elections. 

It may also impact the seat-sharing formula between alliance partners–the ruling Mahayuti and the Opposition Maha Aghadi Vikas (MVA) in the case of Maharashtra. It's being said the Congress would have been given more weightage had it won the assembly elections in Haryana. 

Second, the leaders who might have wanted to switch parties may rethink their decision based on the recent polls.

The third is the perception among voters. The recent results may impact the decision of “undecided voters” (e.g., those who may think, why vote for Mahayuti because it lost Lok Sabha elections). They may want to reevaluate their decision on whom to vote for.

Tiwari said that the "neutral voters"—who are not ideologically aligned with the BJP but are voting for the BJP—"may get this feeling that the BJP is still in contention and wait to see how."

Every state is different, but experts believe perception plays a key role in any election.

In Maharashtra, the fight will be between the ruling Mahayuti (alliance of the BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP) and the MVA (alliance of Congress, Shiv Sena UBT and Sharad Pawar's NCPSP).

The elections in Jharkhand and Maharashtra are due in November-December this year. The Election Commission is yet to announce the poll schedule for these states. Meanwhile, the assembly election in Delhi will take place in February next year.