Exit Poll Results 2024: How accurate were predictions for the 2019 Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections?

Exit Poll Results 2024: Voting for all 288 assembly seats of Maharashtra and 38 seats of Jharkhand is underway today, November 20. The polling began at 7 am and will continue until 6 pm.

Soon after the last vote is polled, exit poll results will be released by different agencies predicting winners and vote percentages in both Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections.

However, the actual results will be out only on November 23, when the vote counting for both states will take place.

What Are Exit Polls?

Exit Polls are predictions based on voter feedback gathered by survey agencies after the polling. The larger idea behind the exit polls is to reflect public sentiment well before the results are announced.

The Election Commission of India prohibits conducting exit polls during the voting process. However, the results can be released 30 minutes after the last vote is cast. So, as per the rules, exit poll data should start coming out after 6:30 pm today, the polling date in Maharashtra and Jharkhand (Phase 2).

Accuracy Under Scrutiny

The accuracy of exit polls has faced scrutiny in the past. Almost all the exit polls got the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 results wrong.

Also, in recent Haryana Assembly Elections, the exit polls had predicted a victory for the Congress party in total contrast with actual results with actual results which saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) coming back to power in the state.

In the 2019 assembly elections, the exit polls were largely right in predicting the outcome of the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections. For Maharashtra, the exit polls had predicted a victory for the BJP-Shiv Sena allies, which actually happened when the results were out. It is another matter that the alliance collapsed soon. In Jharkhand, too, the exit polls correctly predicted the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha's (JMM's) victory.

The numbers were, however, not completely accurate when compared with final seat tallies.

Exit Polls for Maharashtra in 2019?

The poll of polls based on six different exit polls predicted 213 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, and 61 for the Congress-NCP in 2019 elections.

As it turned out, the BJP won 105 seats, making it the single-largest player in the state. The Shiv Sena got 56 seats, taking the then NDA’s seats to 161—well above the majority mark of 145 seats. The Congress won 44 seats and the NCP 54, for a total of 98.

Since then, Maharashtra has witnessed political turbulence. The two major regional parties — the Shiv Sena and the NCP – have split, with one side aligning with both alliances, the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

The contest in Maharashtra in the 2024 assembly elections is largely bipolar. The BJP, in alliance with Ajit Pawar-led NCP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena under the ruling Mahayuti banner, is contesting against the opposition MVA alliance, comprising the Shiv Sena (UBT), the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and the Congress party.

Exit Polls for Jharkhand in 2019?

Like in the case of Maharashtra, the exit poll results were also accurate in the Jharkhand polls in 2019. The poll of polls based on three exit surveys predicted 41 seats for the Congress-JMM-RJD combine and 29 for the BJP in the 81-member Jharkhand assembly.

And when the final results came in, the JMM emerged as the largest party with 30 seats. The BJP won 25 seats. The Congress won 16 seats, the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) got three seats, while the All Jharkhand Students Union won two seats in the 2019 polls.

The JMM formed a government with the support of the Congress and the RJD. The alliance is contesting the 2024 assembly election again, with Hemant Soren-led JMM contesting 43 of the 81 seats in the assembly. The Congress has fielded candidates in 30 seats. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is contesting six seats, and the Left parties are contesting three seats.