Exit poll results today: How accurate pollsters were for Haryana, J&K in past elections?

Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) have concluded and polling in the 90-member Haryana Assembly is underway. As voting to elect J&K and Haryana Assemblies concludes, attention now shifts to the exit poll results — a process that surveys and predicts how many seats each party is likely to win.

Pollsters such as Axis My India, C-Voter, Nielsen and Chanakya will be releasing their exit poll numbers half an hour after the conclusion of the voting process in Haryana.

J&K Election Exit Poll Past Predictions

Last election in Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly was held in 2014. In the 2014 election in J&K, exit poll had predicted a hung Assembly, giving an edge to the Mehbooba Mufti-led Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) followed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the National Conference (NC) and then Congress trailing them all.

Exit poll predictions: In the 2014 exit poll results, the PDP was predicted to emerge as the single-largest party with 32-38 seats, falling short of crossing the magic mark of 44 seats, followed by the BJP at 27-33, the NC bagging 8-14 constituencies, and the Congress at 4-10. The accuracy was close.

J&K exit poll 2014 final result: In the final J&K Assembly election results, the PDP won 28 seats, the BJP 25, the NC 15, and the Congress 12.

Haryana Election Exit Poll Past Predictions

At least two pollsters during 2014 Haryana elections had predicted a landslide victory for the BJP, giving it 52 and 46 seats, followed by Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and then Congress. Except for one prediction that projected the BJP winning 37 seats, all exit polls forecasted a comfortable victory for the saffron party. 6 shocking elections when predictions proved horribly wrong

Exit poll predictions: While the BJP was predicted to win an average of 43 seats, INLD was projected to secure 27 and Congress 13. No pollster predicted more than 15 seats for Congress.

Haryana exit poll 2014 final result: While the average seats of the Congress and the BJP in the exit poll results were nearly accurate, the numbers were well off for the INLD. The Om Prakash Chautala-led party was projected to win an average of 27 seats, but fell short, securing only 19.

The BJP won 47 seats, past the majority mark of 45 seats, the Congress won just 15 seats in the 90-member Assembly.

The 2019 Haryana exit poll results showed the BJP again crossing the majority mark while averaging over 60 seats, followed by Congress gaining a little more than the 2014 results at 18. At least four pollsters – such as Times Now and NewsX Pollstrat – forecasted over 70 seats for the saffron party.

The 2019 exit poll results of India Today-Axis My India proved to be pretty close to the final results for both the BJP and the Congress. India Today-Axis My India predicted 38 seats for the BJP and 36 for Congress, while other pollsters either overestimated the BJP or underestimated Congress.

Haryana exit poll 2019 final result: BJP won 40 seats, down from seven seats and Congress won 31 constituencies. Being the single-largest party, the BJP formed allied with a government by allying with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and seven independent MLAs.

In March 2024, Manohar Lal Khattar submitted his resignation as Haryana chief minister and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leadership elected OBC leader and party chief Nayab Singh Saini to takeover the reins of the state.