US Presidential Election 2024: Kamala Harris holds slim lead over Donald Trump in three new national poll surveys

Three latest national poll surveys indicate that Vice President Kamala Harris is maintaining a slim lead over former President Donald Trump as the two prepare for the upcoming US presidential election on November 5.

Marist College Poll: Harris leads Trump by 5 points among likely voters (52% to 47%)

A Marist College survey shows Harris leading Trump by five points among likely voters, with 52 per cent support compared to Trump’s 47 per cent. This represents a shift from earlier polling this month, which indicated a two-point margin between the candidates.

However, the race tightens when considering registered voters, where Harris holds a narrow 51 per cent to 48 per cent lead. Trump shows strength among independent voters, capturing 54 per cent compared to Harris’s 44 per cent. The dynamics of the race also reveal stark differences among demographic groups, with Harris enjoying a significant advantage among women (57 per cent to 42 per cent) and younger voters, while Trump leads among men (53 per cent to 47 per cent).

Among Generation X voters, Harris leads with 51 per cent compared to Trump’s 48 per cent. Harris also enjoys significant support among younger voters, with 53 per cent of Gen Z and Millennials favouring her.

New Marquette Law School Poll: Harris leads Trump by a narrow 1% margin

In a separate Marquette Law School national poll, survey reveals a tightly contested race for the presidency between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump. The polls were conducted from October 1-10, 2024.

Harris is favoured by 48 per cent of likely voters, with Trump close behind at 47 per cent. When factoring in other potential candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Jill Stein, Harris's lead narrows further, demonstrating the competitiveness of the race. In this scenario, Harris garners 44 per cent of the vote, while Trump follows closely with 41 per cent. 

When respondents who are undecided or leaning toward other candidates are forced to choose between Harris and Trump, the race tightens, with both candidates receiving 50 per cent support among likely voters.

In congressional races, the poll shows that 51 per cent of likely voters prefer Democratic candidates, while 49 per cent lean toward Republican candidates.

When asked who they believe is more likely to win the upcoming election, 53 per cent of respondents think Harris will definitely or probably win, compared to 47 per cent who believe Trump will have the upper hand.

Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Harris holds 3-point lead over Trump (45% to 42%)

A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll has revealed a closely contested race for the presidency, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris holding a marginal 3-percentage-point lead over former Republican President Donald Trump. Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a narrow margin of 45 per cent to 42 per cent among likely voters.

Harris leads Trump by 5 points (43 per cent to 38 per cent) on handling political extremism and threats to democracy. She also leads by 14 points on healthcare policy. Trump leads Harris by 5 points (45 per cent to 40 per cent) on economic issues. 46 per cent of voters have a favorable opinion of Harris, while 42 per cent feel the same about Trump.