Crude oil outlook: Goldman Sachs lowers Brent year-end forecast by $5 on subdued demand, higher OPEC+ supply

Crude Oil Outlook: Goldman Sachs lowered its December 2025 and average 2026 forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil prices, citing subdued demand, economic growth prospects, and expectations of higher supply from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).

The Wall Street investment bank major expects Brent at $71 per barrel in December, down $5 from its previous forecast, and WTI at $67. It also cut its 2026 average Brent forecast to $68 from $73 and US WTI to $64 from $68.

Goldman Sachs expects crude oil demand growth of 0.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, down from 1.1 mb/d previously, incorporating slower US GDP growth on higher tariffs. It expects higher OPEC+ supply, with OPEC+ production increases expected to start in April, compared to July previously.

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On Tuesday, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia's oil output is expected to be 515-520 million metric tonnes in 2025. He added that oil processing volume will be higher this year than in 2024. Novak also believes the global oil market is balanced and will remain so next month as the planned OPEC supply of 100,000 bpd will not affect the market. 

Crude oil prices today 

International crude oil prices rose more than one per cent on Tuesday to their highest levels since the beginning of this month, supported by the instability in the Middle East and China's plans for more economic stimulus.

Also Read: India spent ₹1.15 lakh crore on purchasing Russian crude oil since Ukraine war, China emerges biggest buyer: Report

Brent futures climbed 84 cents, or 1.2 per cent, to $71.91 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also rose 84 cents, 1.2 per cent, to $68.42. Oil prices gained support from President Donald Trump's vow to continue the US assault on Yemen's Houthis unless they end their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Trump said on Monday he would hold Iran responsible for any attacks carried out by the Houthi group that it backs in Yemen.

Russia produced about 9.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in 2024, down from a recent high of 9.8 million bpd in 2022 and a record 10.6 million bpd in 2016, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data going back to 1997. Meanwhile, Israeli air strikes in Gaza killed at least 200 people, Palestinian health authorities said, as attacks ended a weeks-long standoff over extending a ceasefire that halted fighting in January.

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Starting in April, the OPEC+ cartel will increase its production by 138,000 barrels per day, the first step in a planned monthly increase to unwind its nearly six million barrels per day of cuts, equal to six per cent of the global demand. Analysts at Morgan Stanley Research said it was possible OPEC+ would deliver only a few monthly increases rather than fully unwind the cuts.

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