Gold prices cross ₹1 lakh mark: Can they rise further? Experts share short-term targets

Gold prices today surged to a historic high in the domestic futures market, as rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran reignited global risk aversion. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold August futures briefly touched an unprecedented level of ₹1,01,078 per 10 grams before stabilising around ₹1,00,290 by mid-morning on June 16. 

While the latest flare-up in the Middle East—marked by fresh hostilities between Israel and Iran—lent strength to global safe-haven demand, gains were tempered by the strengthening US dollar and cautious investor sentiment ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision scheduled for June 18.

Geopolitical Unrest Drives Safe-Haven Surge

Israel has launched renewed military action against Iran, escalating fears of an all-out regional conflict, which, according to Manav Modi, Senior Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, has pushed investors towards safe-haven assets, with domestic gold hovering around ₹1 lakh and international prices near $3,500 an ounce.

The US has warned of potential involvement, and Israel has declared a state of emergency. This geopolitical uncertainty has sharply increased the risk premium across markets. Modi added that US inflation data has come in softer than expected, yet the Producer Price Index (PPI) slightly exceeded estimates, reflecting a mixed macroeconomic environment.

Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, said that the renewed tensions have overshadowed the recent positive US CPI report, reducing the chances of an imminent Fed rate cut. She warned that any collapse in nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US could trigger another spike in gold prices.

Additionally, investor attention is also fixed on the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision. Despite cooling inflation, the Fed is expected to maintain a cautious stance due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies and global trade dynamics.

Technical Outlook and Price Projections

NS Ramaswamy, Head of the Commodity Desk at Ventura Securities, noted that gold is benefiting from "risk-off" sentiment. 

He added that global central banks are on track to accumulate more than 1,000 metric tons of gold in 2025—marking the fourth consecutive year of robust official sector buying, underscoring gold’s role as a strategic hedge.

Colin Shah, Managing Director of Kama Jewelry, pointed out that the weakening rupee is further fueling domestic gold prices. Although prices crossed ₹1 lakh, Shah expects resistance in the short term and anticipates some correction amid volatility. He projects gold to trade between ₹1,00,200 and ₹1,00,500 in the near term, with medium-term direction contingent on global developments.

From a technical standpoint, Ventura’s Ramaswamy sees key resistance for COMEX gold at $3,476 and forecasts a potential surge to $3,540 if current momentum sustains. On MCX, August gold futures are supported at ₹98,900, with potential upside targets around ₹1,02,000 in the short term, provided geopolitical risks persist.

In international markets, support levels are seen at $3,400 and $3,345, while short-term bullish targets remain intact as long as safe-haven flows dominate market sentiment.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.