Gold prices on a record-hitting spree: Can MCX Gold hit the ₹1 lakh mark in April or May 2025?

Gold prices have been on a record-breaking spree in the domestic and international markets as well. MCX Gold June 5 contracts scaled a record high of ₹95,935 per 10 grams on Thursday, while Comex Gold rose to $3,371.90 per troy ounce on persisting concerns over the economic impact of the ongoing trade war and dollar weakness against its peers.

However, gold declined on profit booking and ended 0.44 per cent lower at ₹95,239 per 10 grams on Thursday. MCX is closed today (Friday) on account of Good Friday.

Gold prices in India have surged 25% year-to-date (YTD) due to persistent global uncertainty, rising geopolitical tensions, central bank buying and expectations of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

Why are gold prices rising?

A confluence of factors is supporting gold prices. The ongoing trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump has created much uncertainty about global economic growth, enhancing the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal.

Moreover, the anticipation of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve amid signs of economic growth slowdown also supports gold prices.

Renisha Chainani, the head of research at Augmont- India's leading gold platform- underscored that the surge of geopolitical tensions has fueled safe-haven investments in gold.

In addition, the Federal Reserve's dovish position and the suggestion of rate cuts weaken the dollar and drive treasury yields down, which supports gold.

Ongoing central bank buying, especially in emerging market countries such as India and China, has also supported prices.

Can MCX Gold touch ₹1,00,000 in April?

Gold's steep rise has raised expectations that the yellow metal could touch the ₹1,00,000 per 10-gram mark as early as April 2025.

However, experts believe MCX Gold may not touch the ₹1,00,000 mark in the near term.

"Gold prices may touch the ₹1 lakh mark in the next one or two years, but not in the short term. In the short term, MCX Gold may touch ₹97,000 per 10-gram mark," said Anuj Gupta, the head of commodities and currency products at HDFC Securities.

According to Chainani, gold will likely continue to show bullish signs in the medium term. Continued global uncertainty, sticky inflation, and central bank diversification of reserves will keep prices elevated.

However, gold lacks a fresh trigger. Moreover, the current prices seem to have fairly discounted the impact of the ongoing trade war and economic slowdown in the US.

Strong US economic data, hawkish US Fed policy, and easing trade war concerns may cause gold prices to consolidate.

Experts believe MCX Gold prices may touch the ₹1 lakh per 10-gram mark later this year or early next year.

"If current bullish factors remain in place, including tariff uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, strong central bank buying, and a weakening rupee, gold prices could be headed for ₹1 lakh per 10 grams by late 2025 or early 2026. It is also cautionary that a lot of bullish sentiment may already be priced in, and absent new catalysts, the move could stall," said Chainani.

Rishabh Nahar, Partner and Fund Manager at Qode Advisors, believes a move toward ₹1 lakh is possible over the medium term, especially if the US Fed pivots dovish, inflation expectations resurface, or global liquidity expands.

What should investors do?

Experts are positive about gold prices for the medium to long term amid expectations of rising inflation, central bank buying, a weaker dollar, and increasing geopolitical tensions.

However, they caution that the strength of the US dollar, higher interest rates, and easing geopolitical tensions may weigh on gold prices.

Moreover, at higher levels, gold may experience demand fatigue, and investors may opt for profit-taking, which may cause some near-term corrections.

"Although the rise in the price of gold is in line with strong demand and of concern in economically uncertain situations, it is crucial to consider the composition of your portfolio and your risk tolerance. If you are overexposed, booking partial profits may be a good idea. If you are underexposed, gradually accumulating gold may work in your favour," said Chainani.

Nahar said if gold forms a significant part of one's portfolio already, it’s reasonable to book partial profits to rebalance. But for those underexposed, buying on dips still makes strategic sense, particularly when paired with silver.

"The structural case for gold remains intact, but investors should balance optimism with prudence. A diversified allocation across gold and silver can provide both protection and upside as we navigate this uncertain macroenvironment," said Nahar.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.