Gold rate today: Yellow metal jumps; can it sustain gains? Experts unveil strategy for MCX Gold price today

Gold rate today: Gold price rose in the domestic futures market Friday morning, tracking gains in international markets as investors digest the bumper 50 bps US Fed rate cut and expect the rate-reduction cycle to continue for the next two years.

Spot Gold price hit a record high of $2,609 per troy ounce in international markets on Friday. 

MCX Gold for October 4 expiry opened at ₹73,619 per 10 grams on Friday, and traded 0.51 per cent up at ₹73,809 per 10 grams around 1 pm. In the previous session, it closed at ₹73,438 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.52 per cent.

Consolidation or further rally ahead?

On September 18, the US Fed cut rates by 50 bps and signalled that, depending on incoming data, the cut could continue until 2026. The US central bank is expected to cut rates by another 50 bps by the end of this year, followed by a full percentage point cut next year and half of a percentage point in 2026.

After the Fed's announcement, gold prices rose to a record-high level of $2,599.92 but lost steam soon. On Friday, gold in international markets struggled near record-high levels but was on track for a weekly gain.

Experts noted that gold struggles to maintain gains, as the market had already factored in much of the anticipated Fed rate cut. Additionally, some analysts highlight Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s emphasis on the central bank's commitment to a data-driven approach.

"Market participants were slightly taken aback after Powell's commentary, as he mentioned that the Fed would move meetings to meetings and keep a data-dependent approach. He did not commit to further cuts in the coming meetings as opposed to what market participants were discounting. Also, there was no mention of easing the quantitative tightening (QT) that was announced during the rate hike cycle, supporting an up-move in the dollar," said Manav Modi, Senior Analyst-Commodity Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

"Updates regarding geopolitical tensions are also keeping market participants on edge. Further escalation and the involvement of other major economies in these middle tensions could boost sentiment for metals. This week, US retail sales, weekly jobless claims, and the Philly Fed manufacturing index were reported better than estimates, further capping gains for bullion," said Mod.

Experts say gold's movement from hereon depends on macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, and news flow regarding the upcoming US presidential election.

After a brutal sell-off in the dollar index, Aiyub Yacoobali, Chairman and Managing Director of South Gujarat Shares And Sharebrokers, expects the dollar index to show some consolidation or relief rally, weighing on gold.

"We may see range trading for MCX Gold in the coming days," said Yacoobali.

Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research expects gold and silver prices to remain volatile in today’s session.

"The overall long-term trend of gold and silver is bullish, but both are in an overbought zone, and some profit-taking is expected from higher levels. We suggest waiting for some corrective dips before initiating fresh positions in gold and silver," said Jain.

Experts' strategy for MCX Gold today

According to Rahul Kalantri, VP of commodities at Mehta Equities, gold has support at $2,571-2,555 while resistance at $2,605-2,622. Silver has support at $30.55-30.40 while resistance is at 31.05-31.24. In India, gold has support at ₹73,150-72,910, while resistance at ₹73,690-73,850. Silver has support at ₹89,450-88,750, while resistance is at ₹90,750-91,480.

According to Yacoobali, on the upside, ₹73,610 – 73,949 will act as a major resistance zone, and a fresh rally is possible only above this zone. On the downside, ₹72,821 – 72,680 may act as a major support zone, with fresh supply possible only below this zone.

"Gold has support at $2,588-2,574, while resistance at $2,630-2,644 per troy ounce and silver has support at $31.00-30.64, while resistance is at $31.74-32.00 per troy ounce in today’s session," said Jain.

"On the MCX, gold has support at ₹73,140-72,800 and resistance at ₹73,700-73,950 while silver has support at ₹89,300-88,750 and resistance at ₹90,550-91,200," Jain said.

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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts, and brokerage firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.