US Elections 2024: Here’s how upcoming polls will impact crypto market; Experts weigh in

The U.S. is presently at the forefront of critical factors that may influence financial markets. With the much-anticipated FOMC meeting in September and the upcoming November elections, attention is focused on the U.S. These events are significant, affecting not only traditional markets but also crypto enthusiasts who are hoping for legislation that could ease regulations in the cryptocurrency space.

This year has been pivotal for cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has achieved new all-time highs, and the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US represents major progress towards mainstream adoption. These achievements underscore the increasing integration of digital currencies into the global economy, paving the way for greater political and regulatory scrutiny as the election approaches.

According to experts, the primary effect of crypto ETFs has been the increased legitimacy they bring to the space. However, some users believe their main impact is on market inflows. Regardless, the upcoming US Presidential elections will influence both perspectives. If pro-crypto candidates win, they could act as a significant market driver, with the President’s choice shaping overall market sentiment.

“Historical evidence going back to 1927 suggests that the incumbent party loses 70% of the time, when elections are held in a recessionary year. Additionally, the incumbent also typically loses when the economy slips into a recession in the 12 months following the election. What is different about this election is that the hot-button topic is not economic growth, which has been robust in recent quarters, but prices and inflation, which have been difficult to control and have had an impact on affordability and disposable income,” said Subho Moulik, Founder & CEO, Appreciate.

Impact on crypto market

Avinash Shekhar, CoFounder & CEO, Pi42 believes that US elections are most likely to affect the investor's sentiment, laws governing the crypto, and the progress of digital assets, making the US elections an important event for the crypto market.

“It is important to realize that the elections will assume paramount importance in shaping the future of digital assets, blockchain solutions, and the overall context of the crypto sphere,” Shekhar said.

So far the year has already been a landmark year with BTC reaching all time high and the approval of BTC ETFs and ETH ETFs. These milestones are a clear indication of growing interest of users in digital currency whilst setting the stage to seek regulatory attention as the election nears.

“As the U.S. presidential election approaches, the crypto industry is closely watching the candidates' differing stances on digital assets. Former President and current candidate Donald Trump’s proposition to embrace Bitcoin as a U.S. strategic asset, alongside Senator Cynthia Lummis' endorsement, underscores the rising significance of crypto in the global economic strategies. Donald Trump has positioned himself as a strong advocate for cryptocurrencies, proposing to make Bitcoin a strategic U.S. asset and aiming to transform the U.S. into the ‘crypto capital of the planet’.His aggressive pro-crypto stance has already impacted market movements, signaling a potential significant policy shift if he wins,” said Balaji Srihari - Business Head, CoinSwitch.