Sensex Today Live Updates : Indian shares set records, the rupee gained and bond yields dropped on Monday as exit polls indicated a decisive mandate and a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with investors eying public spending to maintain economic momentum.
The broader Nifty index rose as much as 3.59% to a record 23,338.70 points while the BSE index surged 3.76% to a lifetime peak of 76,738.89. By 0830 GMT, the markets had pulled back slightly and were trading up around 3% each.
The Nifty and BSE index have both nearly doubled in value since their close a day before election results in 2019.
The benchmark 10-year government bond yield touched 6.9421%, its lowest since April 8, 2022, falling 4 basis points from its previous close. The rupee strengthened to as much as 82.9575, its highest since March 19.
The 10-year edged up to 6.96% while the rupee was trading at 83.13 by 0830 GMT.
Weekend exit polls projected the alliance led by Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to increase its 303 seats in the 543-member lower house and likely get a two-thirds majority - enough to initiate amendments to the constitution.
A win had been widely expected but, if confirmed in the official results, the margin will be larger than analyst forecasts and will be seen as a positive for equity markets that have scaled record highs on the back of economic growth.
European stocks bounced and government bond yields dropped on Monday as investors looked forward to an interest rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB), while U.S. jobs data kept the focus squarely on inflation.
The pan-European STOXX index was up 0.6% by 0850 GMT, while U.S. stock futures also rose.
In bond markets, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was down 4 basis points to 4.47% and German yields, which touched six-month highs last week, also dropped.
All focus was on the ECB, which is considered almost certain to trim rates by a quarter point to 3.75% on Thursday, which would make it the first major central bank to cut rates this cycle.
However a surprisingly high reading for euro zone inflation, out last week, further weakened the case for a rapid round of reductions. Markets now price in fewer than 60 basis points of easing now - meaning two 25-basis point cuts and less than a 50% chance of a third.
China's factory activity grew at the fastest pace in about two years in May, data showed on Monday. That extended the optimism prevailing in markets following Friday figures showing the U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation held steady in April.
Markets also imply around an 80% chance the Bank of Canada will cut at its meeting on Wednesday and around 60 basis points of easing this year, though analysts are hopeful the easing will be even deeper.
Investors are a lot less dovish on the Fed, seeing little prospect of a move until September, though the odds of a move then increased after Friday's inflation data. They price in only a 50% chance of a second cut by December.
The outlook could change this week given data due includes key surveys on services and manufacturing, and the May payrolls report in which unemployment is seen holding at 3.9% as 190,000 net new jobs are created.
In Europe, focus was also on a downgrade to France's credit rating by Standard & Poor's, but the country's bonds showed little reaction.
Emerging markets were in focus, with India's rupee strengthening and the Mexican peso weakening following exit poll results from general elections in both countries.
Asian stocks rose on the back of the strong Chinese data, along with prints from Japan and South Korea, while Indian stocks hit record highs.
Gold was steady at $2,327 an ounce, having now rallied for four months in a row helped in part by buying from central banks and China.
Oil prices see-sawed after OPEC agreed on Sunday to extend most of its oil output cuts into 2025, though some cuts will start to be unwound from October 2024 onwards. Brent was last up 0.3% to $81.35 a barrel, while U.S. crude was up similarly to $77.21 per barrel.