Aditya Birla Real Estate share price jumps over 30% in 1 month; is it a stock to buy?

Aditya Birla Real Estate share price has been on a roll in the recent past, surging over 30 per cent in the last one month. The stock opened at ₹2,324 against its previous close of ₹2,359.35 and jumped nearly 6 per cent to hit an intraday high of ₹2,495, looking set to extend gains to the fourth consecutive session.

While the stock has been down over 8 per cent over the last year, it has seen a solid gain of late, surging over 30 per cent in the last month.

Aditya Birla Real Estate share price recently hit a 52-week low of ₹1,638 on February 28 this year and a 52-week high of ₹3,141.95 on October 21 last year.

Aditya Birla Real Estate: Is it a stock to buy?

Experts say the company's strong growth prospects make it an attractive play for the long term even as its valuation is on a higher side.

Brokerage firm Emkay Global Financial Services has initiated coverage on Aditya Birla Real Estate with a 'buy' and an SoTP-based target price of ₹3,300, implying a 40 per cent upside potential from the stock's previous close (June 6) of ₹2,359.35. The brokerage firm sees a scope for upward re-rating with sustained project additions and more asset-light platform deals in the medium term.

"We value Aditya Birla Real Estate’s residential business at 11.5 times embedded EV/EBITDA (nearly five-year average) and its commercial business at 8 per cent cap rate; we factor in FY27E net debt at nearly ₹2,000 crore. The valuation implies a 75 per cent premium to residential NAV, justified by the expected continuation of project additions over the mid-term (further boosting NAV)," said Emkay.

Emkay Global pointed out that Aditya Birla Real Estate has reported a robust booking CAGR of over 75 per cent during FY20-25. It is set to comfortably surpass the ₹10,000 crore mark within the next two years .

Emkay further said that backed by a strong launch pipeline exceeding ₹45,000 crore, incremental business development (BD), sustained demand momentum, and brand recall of Birla Estates, it expects pre-sales to see 25 per cent CAGR over FY25-27E, reaching ₹12,600 crore.

"Collections are anticipated to increase at a higher 32 per cent CAGR, to ₹4700 crore. Paper division divestment will free up capital and management bandwidth, aiding the robust real estate scale-up. The balance sheet is likely to remain sturdy (net debt to reduce), despite rapid growth in the residential business within a short span," said Emkay.

Should you buy the stock now?

Some experts also highlight favourable technical structures for the stock and suggest buying on dips.

Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers,

Aditya Birla Real Estate has established a strong base in the ₹2,100–2,200 zone and is currently trading above this support range. A bullish divergence is visible on the weekly chart, indicating potential upward momentum.

"We recommend a buy-on-dips approach with an upside target of ₹2,600, while maintaining a stop loss below ₹2,200 on a daily closing basis," said Patel.

Shitij Gandhi, senior technical analyst at SMC Global Securities, highlighted that last week, the stock exhibited a strong upward movement, surpassing the ₹2,400 level after consolidating within a broad range of ₹1,750-2,250 for nearly four to five months.

"The breakout was accompanied by a notable surge in trading volume and positive price action, indicating fresh long build-up. Given the current momentum, the stock is expected to advance toward the ₹2,750 level in the coming weeks, with strong downside support established at ₹2,100," said Gandhi.

Mandar Bhojane, an equity research analyst at Choice Broking, said Aditya Birla Real Estate has recently broken out of a rounding bottom pattern on the daily chart, forming a strong bullish candle accompanied by significant volume. This indicates renewed buying interest and a potential trend continuation.

"If the price sustains above the ₹2,500 level, a fresh breakout could be seen, with the pattern-based target around ₹2,900 in the coming sessions. Any dip towards ₹2,350 should be considered as a buying opportunity, while for prudent risk management, a stop loss at ₹2,230 is recommended," said Bhojane.

Bhojane underscored that the stock is taking support from all key EMAs (20, 50, 100, and 200), which shows strong bullish alignment across timeframes. The RSI is at 74.84, indicating strong momentum, though approaching overbought territory, which typically signals strength but also calls for selective entries.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.