Indian stock market: 8 key things that changed for market over weekend - Gift Nifty, US consumer sentiment to gold rate

Indian stock market: The domestic equity benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher on Monday following upbeat sentiment in global markets.

Asian markets traded mixed, while the US stock futures gained in overnight trading after the S&P 500 registered its best week of 2024.

This week, global central bank officials will speak at the symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s keynote speech on Friday potentially setting expectations for a US rate cut trajectory.

Meanwhile, financial markets are betting on a 74.5% likelihood of the US Fed rate cut by 25 basis points in its September policy meeting, with a diminishing 25.5% chance of a super-sized 50 bps cut, CME’s FedWatch tool showed.

On Friday, the Indian stock market benchmark indices gained almost 2% each, with the Nifty 50 reclaiming the 24,500 mark and the Sensex surpassing the 80,500 mark.

The Sensex jumped 1,330.96 points, or 1.68%, to close at 80,436.84, while the Nifty 50 settled 397.40 points, or 1.65%, higher at 24,541.15.

“We expect the earnings momentum to continue with a steady growth of ~15% over the next 2 years (FY24-26). Softening in US PPI data has raised hopes of rate cuts in the US. Thus, all eyes this week will be on US Fed meeting minutes. Overall we expect the market to consolidate in a broader range and take cues from global factors,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Investors will watch out for upcoming domestic and global macroeconomic data, US Federal meeting minutes, Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, foreign fund inflow, crude oil prices, and other key global geopolitical developments that can influence the Indian stock market.

Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:

Asian Markets

Asian markets traded mixed on Monday after a broad rally last week and as investors await key economic data in the region. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.2%, having rallied 2.8% last week.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 recouped early losses to trade flat, while the Topix fell 0.1%. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.17% lower, and the Kosdaq declined 0.46%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures indicated a higher opening.

Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading around 24,666 level, a premium of nearly 68 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a positive start for the Indian stock market indices.

Wall Street

US stock market ended higher on Friday, extending its biggest weekly percentage gains of the year, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notching their seventh straight session of gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 96.7 points, or 0.24%, to 40,659.76, while the S&P 500 rose 11.03 points, or 0.20%, to 5,554.25. The Nasdaq Composite ended 37.22 points, or 0.21%, higher at 17,631.72.

US Consumer Sentiment

US consumer sentiment rose in August, driven by developments in the race for the White House. The University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 67.8 this month, compared to a final reading of 66.4 in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a preliminary reading of 66.9.

Housing Starts

US single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, tumbled 14.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 851,000 units in July, the lowest level since March 2023. Single-family housing starts dropped 14.8% on a year-on-year basis in July.

Japan Core Machinery Orders

Japan’s core machinery orders rose more than expected in June compared to a month ago.

Core orders rose in June by 2.1% from the previous month. That compared with a 1.1% rise expected by economists in a Reuters poll. On a year-on-year basis, core orders dropped 1.7%, versus a forecast for a 1.8% growth.

Oil Prices

Crude oil prices traded lower on Monday as fears of weaker demand in China weighed on market sentiment.

Brent crude futures dropped 0.2% to $79.55 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.2% to $76.52 a barrel.

Gold Prices

Gold prices surged to an all-time high, with spot gold surpassing $2,500 an ounce for the first time, as the dollar weakened on growing expectations for an interest-rate cut from the US Fed in September, and rising tensions in the Middle East.

(With inputs from Reuters)

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