Q4 results today: HDFC Bank vs ICICI Bank — what market expectations signal?

Q4 results today: After the announcement of Q4 results 2025 by Indian IT majors — Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Wipro, and Infosys — Q4FY25 earnings season is in full swing. Among Indian banking majors, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank have fixed 19 April 2025 to consider and approve their unaudited standalone Q4 results for the financial year 2024-25. As per the market estimates, both leading private lenders expect decent and steady growth in Q4FY25. Both banks will likely demonstrate resilience through stable margins, healthy balance sheet growth, and improving asset quality.

HDFC Bank Q4 results expectations

According to Axis Securities, the largest Indian private lender is expected to report better deposit growth than credit growth. The brokerage believes HDFC Bank's credit growth may be below the industry average. However, the private lender is expected to report a margin contraction, driven by a steady OPEX ratio and healthy PROP growth. Management commentary after HDFC Bank's Q4 results announcement for the recently ended fiscal year would be significant.

Speaking on HDFC Bank's Q4 results expectations, Yes Securities said, "Sequential loan growth will be in the 2% ballpark due to idiosyncratic growth trajectory. NII growth will be slightly slower than average loan growth due to a fall in yield on advances outpacing the cost of deposits. Consequently, NIM will be slightly lower sequentially. Sequential fee income growth will broadly match loan growth. Opex growth would slightly lag business growth. Slippages would be lower on a sequential basis due to seasonality. Provisions will be higher on a sequential basis."

ICICI Bank Q4 results expectations

Speaking on the market estimates of ICICI Bank Q4 results, Yes Securities said, "Sequential loan growth will be in the 3.5% ballpark due to idiosyncratic growth trajectory. NII growth will be slightly slower than average loan growth due to a fall in yield on advances, outpacing the cost of deposits, which will partially offset lower interest reversals on the KCC loan. Consequently, NIM will be lower sequentially. Sequential fee income growth will broadly match loan growth. Opex growth would slightly lag business growth. Slippages would be lower on a sequential basis due to seasonality. Provisions will be higher on a sequential basis."

HDFC Bank vs ICICI Bank: What market expectations say

Speaking on the comparative expectations from Q4 results from these two leading Indian private lenders, Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, said, "HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, two of India's leading private sector lenders, are expected to demonstrate strong performance in Q4FY25. HDFC Bank's Q4 business update reveals a 16% year-on-year (YoY) increase in average deposits, reaching ₹25.27 lakh crore, and a 14.1% rise in period-end deposits to ₹27.15 lakh crore. Advances grew by 7.3% and 7.7%, respectively, indicating healthy credit demand. The bank's expanding distribution network, with over 9,100 branches and 21,000 ATMs, positions it well for future growth. ICICI Bank is expected to report strong double-digit YoY growth in net profit, driven by a solid rise in net interest income (NII). Both its loan book and deposit base are projected to grow in double digits, reflecting robust business momentum."

The SMC Global Securities expert and a certified chartered accountant (CA) said that both banks will likely demonstrate resilience through stable margins, healthy balance sheet growth, and improved asset quality. HDFC Bank offers steady growth supported by an expanding network, while ICICI Bank displays strong earnings momentum and disciplined asset management. These attributes make them solid, lower-risk opportunities for long-term investors seeking exposure to India's growing and well-regulated financial sector.

"With robust financials and a widening market presence, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank present attractive options for those seeking stability and growth. Their ability to navigate the current economic environment and consistently deliver performance positions them well to capitalise on India's long-term growth story. Overall, both banks are well-positioned to benefit from the country's economic expansion and offer compelling investment opportunities," Seema Srivastava said.

The HDFC Bank share price ended at ₹1,905.80 apiece on the NSE on Thursday, after logging an 8% rally in the last five straight sessions. Likewise, ICICI Bank shares finished at ₹1,407 apiece on the NSE on Thursday, after logging 9% rally in the last five successive sessions.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.