Reliance share price nears record high after 30% surge from April lows. More gains ahead?

Reliance share price: Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries has seen its share price rebound sharply from recent lows, delivering healthy returns to shareholders and helping the Nifty 50 stay above key levels.

After hitting a 52-week low of ₹1,114 in April, the stock quickly reversed its losses amid improved sentiment toward risk assets in the following months. It has gained 30% since those lows, trading at the current price of ₹1,448, making it one of the best turnaround large-cap stocks of 2025 and pushing its market capitalisation close to ₹20 lakh crore.

In addition, the rally has brought Reliance Industries closer to its record high of ₹1,608, last seen in July of the previous year. Analysts expect the uptrend to continue and see the stock price surpassing its previous record high, citing an earnings recovery in the ongoing fiscal year, driven by a rebound in the retail business and continued tariff recovery in telecom.

These two segments now account for 54% of FY25 consolidated EBITDA, and analysts estimate they will contribute nearly all of the net EBITDA growth over the next three years.

Global brokerages lift Reliance target price

Analysts at global brokerage firms JP Morgan and Bernstein have recently raised their target prices for Reliance Industries, citing recovery in retail growth, continued tariff repair, and the scale-up of its new energy segment.

Bernstein believes the improving growth outlook, coupled with supportive valuations, sets the stage for a potential stock re-rating. The brokerage also highlighted Reliance’s strong balance sheet discipline, with moderating capex and net debt to EBITDA expected to remain flat in FY25.

It said that Reliance has completed a major store rationalisation in FY25, shutting down around 2,100 underperforming outlets, and is now focusing on quality growth. In telecom, tariff hikes, reduced capex, and faster broadband expansion through Jio AirFiber are projected to drive a 13% revenue CAGR, with Jio expected to reach 500 million subscribers and 48% revenue share by FY27.

If further stated that the new energy segment is emerging as a long-term growth pillar, backed by a $2 trillion investment plan and a roadmap to achieving 10 GW integrated capacity by 2026.

Amid these positive tailwinds, Bernstein revised its target price higher to ₹1,640 from ₹1,520 while maintaining an 'Outperform' rating on the stock.

JP Morgan noted that Reliance has operated with material negative free cash flow over the past three years, largely due to high telecom investments.

However, with an EBITDA run rate of approximately $20 billion a year and declining telecom capex, the brokerage expects Reliance to turn cash flow positive, despite ongoing investments in new energy, retail, and petchem expansion. The firm raised its target price to ₹1,568 from ₹1,530 while maintaining its 'Overweight' rating.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.