Stock to buy for short term: Axis Securities recommends buying SBI shares on Akshaya Tritiya for up to 15% upside

Stock to buy for short term: SBI share price declined over 3% on Wednesday amid heavy selling pressure. SBI shares fell as much as 3.36% to ₹784.45 apiece on the BSE. Despite the decline, brokerage firm Axis Securities has identified SBI shares as a strong short-term investment opportunity, projecting an upside potential of up to 15% over the next one to three months.

Axis Securities has selected State Bank of India (SBI), the largest public sector lender in the country, as its ‘Techno-Funda Pick’, highlighting that the stock is well-positioned for gains based on both technical indicators and strong fundamental support.

Fundamental Rationale

According to Axis Securities, SBI remains well-placed to sustain its growth momentum, supported by a comfortable Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) that enables the bank to accelerate credit growth, particularly in the retail and SME segments. This also offers scope to support Net Interest Margins (NIMs).

The brokerage believes SBI can maintain a sustainable Return on Assets (RoA) of around 1% over the medium term. This outlook is backed by strong growth prospects across business segments, a robust deposit franchise with a focus on CASA (Current Account Savings Account) deposits, increasing fee-based income, and disciplined cost and provision management.

Technical Rationale

On the technical front, SBI share price recently broke above the neckline of an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern at ₹787 on the daily chart in mid-April 2025. The breakout was supported by a strong bullish candle and rising volumes, confirming investor participation and bullish sentiment.

Following a brief throwback to the breakout level, SBI share price rebounded sharply, validating the strength of the breakout. SBI shares are currently trading above key short- and medium-term moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200-day SMAs), indicating sustained bullish momentum, Axis Securities noted.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also given a positive crossover and continues to trend above its upward sloping trendline, reinforcing the positive price action.

Axis Securities recommends buying SBI shares in the range of ₹815 - 799, while maintaining a stop loss at ₹775. The brokerage firm anticipates that SBI shares could move toward the recent swing highs, with a potential price target in the range of ₹885 to ₹930 — implying an upside of nearly 15% from Tuesday’s closing price. The expected investment horizon for this target is 1 to 3 months.

SBI share price has delivered mixed returns across different timeframes. Over the past three months, SBI shares have gained 4%. However, the stock has declined over 3% in the last six months and is down around 4% on a one-year basis.

Despite this short-term underperformance, SBI share price has delivered strong long-term returns. The stock has rallied 37% over the past two years and has generated multibagger returns of 315% over a five-year period. 

At 11:40 AM, SBI share price was trading 2.49% lower at ₹791.55 apiece on the BSE.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.