Stock market today: The domestic benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex, fell on Wednesday after a brief respite, aligning with significant declines in Asian markets due to rising trade tensions, despite the RBI cutting the key interest rate by 25 basis points to support an ailing economy affected by reciprocal tariffs from the US.
Reflecting the poor performance of Asian equities, domestic benchmark equity indices opened lower and continued to decline throughout the day as the latest round of US tariffs, which included a staggering 104 percent duty on Chinese goods, took effect.
The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex fell by 332.56 points to reach 73,910.20 at 12:33 IST. The Nifty 50 dropped 111 points to hit 22,424.85.
The market's response might be subdued in the short term due to worldwide volatility; however, in the medium term, the 'accommodative' approach, enhancing macro conditions, and a stabilizing earnings cycle may foster a positive outlook, noted Anil Rego, founder and fund manager at Right Horizons, according to a report by Reuters.
Nifty 50 fell sharply after having bounced back sharply. The recovery from 22,000 levels to 23,800 levels took 15 days whereas the fall from the recent highs to recent lows took 8 days which is almost half of the bounce.
This has led to increase in the India VIX from 13 levels to above 22 levels. The volatility has inched up across the globe signaling the risk off mood in the equity markets. Now, until the volatility doesn’t cool off the overall trend will continue to remain negative as volatility and equity markets are inversely correlated for most of the time.
Based on the options data, 23,000 levels will now act as a critical resistance level as call OI whereas the immediate support is 22,000 and below that 21,500, hence we recommend to sell the Nifty 50 with a stop loss above 23,000 for the targets of 22,000 and 21,500 in the near term.
Jay Thakkar of ICICI Securities recommends Colgate-Palmolive Futures, Wipro Futures, and Nestle India Futures.
Colgate-Palmolive Futures had fallen on account of short built up which got covered in January and February 2025, however, the prices didn’t react much indicating that there is still some room either for consolidation or for further downside. Now, the prices have started to inch higher and the short positions are at the peak again. In these highly volatile markets, there is a high possibility of short covering in the FMCG stocks .
The options data also suggest that a move until 2,600 can’t be ruled out as 2,600 strike has the highest call OI. There has been put additions at the ATM as well as OTM strikes indicating support at the lower levels. The stock is also trading above its max pain and modified max pain levels of 2,400 and 2,435 respectively. It is also trading well above its 20-day VWAP levels of 2,400 levels approximately. So, based on these evidences the upside probability is higher.
IT sector has been a hard hit in the recent fall due to the concern globally. The short built up in Wipro seems to have just started and it has much more room for further increase based on the overall IT sector downside momentum. There have been significant call additions in ₹235 and ₹240 strikes, also at each higher levels there is higher call base. The stock is trading below its max and modified max pain levels of ₹250 and ₹252 respectively It is also trading well below its 20-day VWAP level of ₹260 approximately, hence the short-term outlook is bearish.
Nestle India has witnessed short built up since more than 1 year now and the prices have reacted negatively to it as well. Now, the stock has started to witness short covering and the prices have consolidated at the lower levels and provided a breakout as well which will help the Index to bounce back further until the levels of ₹2,430 to ₹2,500 range.
The stock has huge call base at ₹2,300 levels, so if the stock sustains above this level, then it will lead to further short covering until ₹2,500 levels. It is also trading well above its max pain and modified max pain levels of ₹2,260 and ₹2,240 respectively which also coincides with the 20-day VWAP level of ₹2,240 approximately, hence the short-term trend looks bullish.
Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 08/04/2025 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest.
The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.
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