Swiggy share price recovers 32% from May lows, trades near listing price. What should investors do?

Swiggy share price in focus today: Swiggy, the leading food delivery and quick commerce platform, rose another 0.6% in Tuesday’s trade (June 24), hitting a four-month high of ₹399.40 during intraday deals, edging closer to its listing price of ₹420.

Despite concerns over rising competition in the quick commerce (QC) segment, following the entry of players like Rapido and Amazon—as well as a slowdown in the overall food delivery business, Swiggy’s shares have recovered sharply, gaining 32% from May low of ₹297.

This rebound comes as analysts turn bullish on the company’s growth prospects, following signs of market share recovery in the food delivery segment over the past few quarters. 

After losing relative share to Zomato for three years until FY24, Swiggy’s improved execution has helped it begin regaining lost ground in FY25. Its 10-minute food delivery service, Bolt, has supported overall growth and now contributes 12% of order volumes in just three quarters since launch—helping Swiggy gain 2–2.5 percentage points more market share than Eternal over the past two quarters.

Swiggy is also witnessing exponential growth in its QC business, driven by hypergrowth in the industry. This is attributed to rising customer penetration and the expansion of QC beyond impulsive buying—now covering planned grocery purchases and newer categories like electronics and fashion.

In the March quarter, Swiggy added 316 dark stores and reported Gross Order Value (GOV) growth of 101% YoY. Despite this growth, Swiggy’s Instamart trails behind Blinkit and Zepto, holding a market share of 20%. However, analysts expect a marginal increase in share going forward, supported by improved utilization of dark stores and operating leverage.

Analysts have also downplayed concerns over rising competition in the QC space. IIFL Securities noted that Swiggy has a strong supply chain and is well-versed with unit economics and execution dynamics.

Swiggy’s mature and profitable food delivery segment continues to act as a cash cow, likely cushioning the ongoing cash burn from its QC operations. With the total addressable market (TAM) in QC large enough to accommodate 3–4 players, the brokerage believes that Swiggy is well-positioned to emerge as one of the eventual winners, just as it has in food delivery.

Analysts see more upside ahead for Swiggy, set target at ₹535

IIFL Securities, in its latest note, has initiated coverage on Swiggy with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of ₹536 per share, forecasting that Swiggy will deliver a 28% revenue CAGR over FY25–28ii and become EBITDA/PAT positive by FY27ii/FY28ii.

IIFL expects Swiggy’s Gross Order Value (GOV) in the quick commerce (QC) segment to more than triple over the next three years (FY25–28ii), as the industry continues on its hypergrowth trajectory.

It expects losses to begin narrowing from 2QFY26ii onwards, aided by improving dark store utilization and operating leverage. IIFL also projects that the QC business will operate with adjusted EBITDA margins of 5% of GOV or 20% of revenues.

In terms of the food delivery (FD) segment, IIFL expects Swiggy to deliver 17% GOV growth and 18% adjusted revenue growth over FY25–28ii, with market share remaining broadly stable.

Meanwhile, global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley believes the company can deliver GOV growth at a 15.8% CAGR during FY25–28E, along with improving margins. It also highlighted Swiggy’s strategic investments in quick commerce, which it expects will help regain market share and drive GOV growth at a 63% CAGR over FY25–28.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.