Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland share price : Improved commercial vehicles sales to help gains, support earnings

Stock Market Today: Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland saw overall commercial Vehicle volumes decline during August. While Domestic commercial vehicle volumes declined 16% year on year for Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland , domestic medium and heavy commercial Vehicle volumes declined 14% year on year. including light commercial vehicles sales, the total domestic sales volume for Ashok Leyland were also down 8% year on year

The sales trend has remained unimpressive during the current financial year and Tata Motor domestic CV sales volumes are 4% lower yoy during current financial year i.e FY25 year to date. For Ashok Leyland year to date domestic sales volumes during FY25 are also 1% lower ytd , suggest Anand Rathi data.

The CV sales trend nevertheless is expected to see some improvement moving forward if analysts are to be believed

CV sales trend to pick up during H2FY25

Against the prior predicted decline in sales volume to the tune of 4-7%, rating agency ICRA now anticipates the domestic CV industry's wholesale volumes to experience a YoY growth of 0-3% in FY2025.

According to Kinjal Shah, Senior Vice President & Co-Group Head – Corporate Ratings, ICRA: “A range of factors such as the slowdown in infrastructure activities during the General Elections, as well as extreme heatwaves across the country, had some bearing on demand in Q1 FY2025.

While first few months sales volume have sill remained better than ICRA's estimates , the rating agency expect pick up in volumes during second half of FY25.

As per Shah, ICRA expects a recovery in volumes in H2 FY2025 helped by a back-ended government capital expenditure, some improvement in private Capex in a number of manufacturing sectors, and a boost in rural demand as a result of increased clarity on the output of the Kharif crop and agricultural cash flows. Because of the aging fleet, there would also be a solid replacement demand, which is anticipated to sustain industry volumes in the medium term.

Even Anand Rathi Research expects FY25 volume growth to be at 7% for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles.

Ashok Leyland is among top 3 picks of Anand Rathi in Automobile

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As per Shah,