Tata Motors share price down 25% in the last 1 year; is it time to buy this Tata Group stock?

Tata Motors share price climbed over a per cent in intraday trade on the BSE on Wednesday, June 11, looking set to extend gains to the sixth consecutive session. Tata Motors share price opened at ₹733 against its previous close of ₹732.25 and rose X per cent to an intraday high of ₹740. Around 12:30 PM, the Tata Group stock traded 0.80 per cent higher at ₹738. Equity benchmark Sensex was 0.38 per cent up at 82,708 at that time.

Tata Motors share price trend

Tata Motors' share price has been under pressure over the last year, falling more than 25 per cent, hitting a 52-week low of ₹542.55 on April 7 this year. The Tata Group stock hit a 52-week high of ₹1,179.05 on July 30 last year.

On a monthly scale, the stock has climbed nearly 3 per cent after a 12 per cent rise in May. Year-to-date, however, the stock has dropped by over a per cent.

Tata Motors: Is it a stock to buy?

Experts largely appear positive about the stock for the long term, pinning hopes on the JLR turnaround story.

BNP Paribas Securities has an outperform view on the stock with a target price of ₹830.

The brokerage firm said that while global macroeconomic uncertainty is a key near-term risk, Tata Motors's attractive FCF yield relative to that of other Indian auto OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) is positive.

"JLR is now pivoting to become a modern luxury brand. We think the strategy, if successful, could offer upsides to our margin and FCF expectations, as the JLR turnaround is the most audacious strategic step by the company, which should offer material long-term revenue upside potential," said BNP Paribas.

"In its domestic business, Tata Motors aims to expand its PV market share further through model launches and refreshes, front-end re-imagination, and expanding the addressable market for EVs. We expect JLR's cost structure to improve continuously and Tata Motors' CV business to start enjoying CV-upcycle tailwinds," BNP Paribas said.

Technical experts underscore that the stock could see further upside, but one should wait for a breakout above ₹745 to initiate longs.

Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, pointed out that an inverse head and shoulders pattern is forming with a neckline around ₹745, and the relatively small right shoulder often precedes sharp upward moves.

"We recommend waiting for a decisive close above ₹745 before entering. A breakout above this level could open the path toward ₹820. In the short term, support is placed at ₹700, while resistance remains at ₹745. Confirmation of the pattern will strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially lead to a swift upside move," said Patel.

Mandar Bhojane, an equity research analyst at Choice Broking, observed that on the weekly chart, the stock has formed a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern backed by significant volume. The price is on the verge of a breakout, and a decisive close above ₹740 will confirm this breakout, opening the path for an upmove towards ₹800 and ₹900 in the short to medium term.

Bhojane further highlighted that the stock is trading above its key 20- to 200-day EMAs, which signals strength across timeframes. Additionally, a 'Morning Star' candlestick pattern has formed on the weekly chart, taking support at the 20-EMA, further confirming a potential bullish reversal.

The RSI stands at 51.85, gradually rising and indicating increasing momentum without being overbought, making it favourable for fresh entry.

"On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at ₹785 and ₹815, where short-term traders can look to book partial profits, while the rest of the position can be held for higher targets. For prudent risk management, a stop loss at ₹675 is advised to protect against any false breakout or trend reversal," said Bhojane.

According to Shitij Gandhi, Senior Technical Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, the key resistance to watch is at ₹755. A confirmed breakout above this level could trigger renewed buying interest, potentially driving the stock toward ₹805 in the coming weeks. Until then, the stock is likely to remain range-bound within the ₹700–740 zone.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.