Technical Picks: Vinay Rajani of HDFC Securities suggests these three stocks to buy or sell in the near-term

Stock market today: The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, experienced a rebound during Monday’s session, reflecting a significant surge in global markets alongside increased buying in financial giants like Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, and IndusInd Bank. In the Asian markets, cities such as Seoul, Tokyo, Shanghai, and Hong Kong were all showing gains. The US markets closed significantly higher on Friday.

As per analysts, the market trend in the near term is expected to remain stable with a positive inclination. Contributing factors include a continuous decrease in foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows and India's better performance compared to the US in the previous week.

Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, stated that the near-term market outlook seems stable with a positive tendency. Beneficial elements include the ongoing decline in FII outflows and India's outperformance over the US last week.

This optimistic trend is fundamentally backed by a rebound in FY25 Q3 GDP growth, which stands at 6.2%, a rise in January's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) to 5%, and a drop in February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to 3.61%. This favorable macroeconomic environment is likely to support the market in the short term; however, it may not sustain a long-term rally. Concerns over trade wars continue to cast a shadow over global trade and growth.

The uncertainty related to the reciprocal tariffs set to take effect from April 2 is expected to impact the markets. India, often labeled as the ‘tariff King’ and ‘tariff abuser,’ may not evade scrutiny from Trump, which will likely keep the market on edge, especially for sectors reliant on exports. On the other hand, domestic consumption sectors that are unaffected by tariffs are predicted to remain stable.

Market Views - Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst, HDFC Securities

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 has been consolidating in the range of 22,300-22,676 for the last 5 trading sessions. Nifty 50 recently found resistance on 20 DEMA and downward sloping trendline on the daily charts. After five months of consecutive fall, Nifty 50 is attempting a recovery in the current month. Any level above the previous swing high of 22,676 would confirm the resumption of bullish trend which could pull the index towards 23,000-23,200 levels.

Bank Nifty has been finding support in the band of 47,700-47,800. Any level above 48600 would confirm bullish trend reversal and could take index towards 49,600. Any level below 47,700 levels in Bank Nifty could drag it towards the next support of 47,000.

Breadth of the broader markets reaches extreme oversold zone, as % of members above 200 DMA in NSE500 has reached to 12%.

US benchmark index Dow jones has bounced from the long-term trend line support. US markets investor sentiment index suggest extreme pessimism which could soon lead to mean reversion by improvement in the sentiments.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Microcap 250 indices have been forming inverted and shoulder patterns on the daily chart. However, confirmation of bullish breakout is yet to come.

Indian markets have ended its long underperformance against global markets and it is expected to continue. Falling Crude and Dollar index augers well for the Indian equity markets.

Considering the technical evidences discussed above, we believe that Nifty 50 could find bullish momentum once it takes out the resistance of 22,700. Above 22,700, a sharp short covering from FII could emerge, which could pull the index towards 23,000-23,200 targets. Longs should be held with 22,200 stoploss in Nifty 50.

Technical Picks: Stocks to buy or sell in the near-term

Vinay Rajani of HDFC Securities recommends these two stocks in the near term - Kotak Mahindra Bank, Manappuram Finance, and Zomato March Futures.

Kotak Mahindra Bank (Rs. 1,994) | Target Rs. 2,050, Rs. 2100 | Stop-loss Rs. 1,950

Kotak Mahindra Bank share price has new 52 week high with good volumes. Primary trend of the stock has been bullish as it is placed above all important moving averages. Stock has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on weekly charts.

Manappuram Finance (Rs. 205): | Target Rs. 215, Rs. 230| Stop-loss Rs. 194

Manappuram Finance share price is placed above all important moving averages. Indicators and oscillators have been showing strength in the current uptrend. Gold as a commodity has hit fresh all time high in domestic as well as US markets, which augers well for the gold finance company like Manappuram Finance.

Zomato March Futures (Rs. 205.50): | Target Rs. 196 | Stop-loss Rs. 210

Stock is placed below 20,50- and 200-days EMA. Recently 50 dema has crossed 200 dema on the downside, which indicates death crossover. Stock has been forming lower tops and lower bottoms on the daily chart. Indicators and oscillators have been showing a bearish trend.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decision.