Airlines are flying into this winter with flat capacity

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) released the summary of the approved Northern Winter schedule for domestic airlines in India. The regulator has approved a total of 25,007 weekly flights, which is an increase of 3.2 per cent over the concluding summer schedule and a 5.3 per cent increase over the previous winter.

The schedule sees Vistara flights being approved separately, but they will merge with Air India on November 12, making Air India the undisputed number two in Indian skies—a rank it could lose in future to its subsidiary Air India Express, given its expansion plans.

Among the major airlines, the maximum sequential growth has been seen by the unified Air India Express, which is registering a 16.2 per cent growth. This is a 45 per cent increase compared to last winter.

Sequentially, the government-owned Alliance Air, SpiceJet and flybig are shrinking. The schedule surpasses the pre-COVID schedule despite the fall of Go FIRST and the shrinking of SpiceJet. The schedule also includes operations to 124 airports, compared to the preceding schedule, which had approvals for 125 airports. In all probability, the commercial operationalisation of both Navi Mumbai and Noida Airport at Jewar would be pushed to the Summer schedule, which begins on the last Sunday of March next year.

Unfortunately, not all airlines operate as many flights as approved. The current schedule has 24,275 weekly flights approved across airlines. The last seven days have seen 22,201 flights in operation or 91 per cent of approved flights.

Granular data for August shows that Air India, Akasa Air and IndiGo have been operating most of their approved flights, while a few airlines, like SpiceJet, have been operating fewer than 50 per cent of their approved flights.

How are the airlines growing and shrinking?

India’s largest carrier, IndiGo, which started this year with a new set of groundings, will see a modest growth of 4.36 per cent over last winter. The airline has lately been focusing on international growth and has announced the launch of seven new international destinations, two of which have been disclosed.

Vistara will merge with Air India mid-season, and the combined Air India Express will have more flights than before. Akasa Air is growing by 25 per cent over last winter, but sequentially, the growth is just 9.5 per cent, largely due to limited available capacity. The airline has inducted only one aircraft this financial year, and the strike at Boeing would likely mean further delays in induction.

SpiceJet, which has recently seen fund infusion, has scaled back from its previous schedule, though it remains more realistic right now with 1,297 weekly flights being approved. For August, the airline operated only 616 weekly flights on an average against the approved 1,657. The airline had approval for 4,209 weekly departures for Summer 2020, a schedule that did not start due to the pandemic, indicating how much the airline has shrunk post-COVID.

Regionals holding on

The regional carriers, led by Star Air, have been slowly increasing their presence in the country. They have also increased their utilisation significantly and performed better in slot adherence. Star Air, Indiaone, and FLy91 have plans to add flights, while flybig has shrunk, operating only 26.5 per cent of its approved schedule in August, and the revised schedule is more realistic.

Merger with 30% market share?

As part of the Vihaan.AI initiative of Air India, the group mentioned its intention of having a 30 per cent market share in a span of five years. The airline group has inched closer to that number much earlier with September seeing over 29 per cent market share by the four airlines. As the AirAsia India merger with Air India Express is complete and Vistara merges with Air India on November 12, will the merger bring good news in November itself?

Purely by numbers, the Tata group of airlines have 30.43 per cent of all departures this winter. With a better rate of flight deployment by these airlines as compared to few others and a certainty that the schedule won't be at its peak in the very first month of operation, coupled with higher load factors which Air India and Vistara have been clocking, all indicators point to a 30 per cent market share for the two Tata group airlines at the end of November.

Tail Note

In the current season, SpiceJet and Air India Express have had poor utilisation of their approved flights, with everybody else either operating more than their approved schedule or nearly as much. Such issues, when faced at metro airports, lead to a shortage of capacity, and at non-metro or smaller airports, they could lead to loss of connectivity.

IndiGo is a winner by a margin, and with other airlines not being able to scale up, the advantage the airline will continue to enjoy is massive. However, last winter, IndiGo was in the news for all the wrong reasons. A massive operation comes with its own set of challenges. How will this winter be for IndiGo? For the Tata group, it is still a phase of consolidation, but IndiGo cannot hide behind that this winter.