Bitcoin Hits Unusually Calm ‘Uptober’ as Traders Await Election

(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin has settled into an unusually calm period, as traders remain on the sidelines awaiting the outcome of the upcoming US election.

The original cryptocurrency moved less than 5% for 34 straight sessions through yesterday, on par with the longest such streak of calm in a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The doldrums in price movement has disappointed many in the crypto community since the asset class has historically performed well in October, earning the nickname “Uptober.”

In previous Octobers over the past 10 years, Bitcoin only fell twice and posted an average gain of more than 20% for the month, compared with an average advance of about 6% in all months in that past decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Many attribute the current stagnation to a lack of clear drivers, with attention focused on the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Republican candidate Donald Trump, now a vocal supporter of the cryptocurrency industry, has even ventured into decentralized finance with his World Liberty Financial project. The position of his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, is less clear as a crackdown on the industry under President Biden shows no signs of abating. 

The US Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday accused Cumberland DRW, the crypto arm of Chicago-based proprietary trading giant DRW Holdings LLC, of operating as an unregistered securities dealer in more than $2 billion of digital assets. The SEC previously brought a string of actions against other crypto players such as Binance and Coinbase. 

“We’re awaiting the election for the next big move,” said Leo Mizuhara, chief executive officer and founder of crypto asset manager Hashnote. “Many are anticipating that a Trump presidency would be positive for Bitcoin. Kamala is a bit more of a toss-up with some people thinking she’ll stay the Democratic line of being hostile, but many have hope that she is more crypto and tech friendly than her predecessor.”

In the options market, traders are betting on higher volatility going into the November election, according to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of crypto fund Split Capital.  

“Most of people in crypto wait to trade until some sort of spot actions,” said Ebtikar. “And after seeing Cumberland and other recent enforcement cases brought to the crypto companies, a big part of Donald Trump’s policy is to be crypto friendly.”

Moreover, an oversupply in the options market, combined with increased interest in other asset classes, has made alternatives to the spot crypto market more attractive to traders.

“There’s been a lot of supply in the options markets which has resulted in dealers being long inventory and suppressing volatility,” said Shiliang Tang, president of principal trading firm Arbelos Markets. “This, coupled with continued uncertainty regarding the election and macro markets, and with Chinese equities and traditional markets pulling attention away from crypto, has resulted in crypto markets being lackluster lately.”

Spencer Hallarn, global head of over-the-counter trading at crypto investment firm GSR, also argued that with the pending launch of options on BlackRock’s Bitcoin exchange traded fund and the increased adoption of the oldest cryptocurrency, it’s likely that volatility in Bitcoin will continue to decrease.

“As Bitcoin matures as an asset class, it is reasonable to expect realized volatility to drop,” he said.

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