Experts call for tracking source, transmission of new covid cases

There is a greater need to understand the transmission of the new covid wave, a disease control expert said, at a time when the number of cases in the country is inching closer to 5,000.

Communities where flu-like symptoms lead to a rush of covid-19 hospitalizations need an epidemiological investigation—a process to figure out how it spreads and stop the transmission—according to Dr. Sujeet Singh, who led the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) during the pandemic outbreak five years ago. This will uncover transmission dynamics, trends among hospitalized cases and epidemiological profile of cases, besides assessment of morbidity and associated severity, Singh said in an interview.

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“There has been a recent rise in covid cases in Singapore, Hongkong, Korea and some other countries. In India also, there has been a substantial rise in the last fortnight. The rise from 257 cases around 25 May to over 3,900 cases on 1 June, 2025 points to increased transmission,” said Singh, former NCDC director. He added that at present, the strategy of test, track and treat should be aimed at understanding the current scenarios, particularly in states where rise is being seen.

On Thursday, India registered a 4866 active covid-19 cases, as per health ministry data. As many as seven deaths were reported in the previous 24 hours, two each in Delhi, Karnataka and three from Maharashtra. The total number of deaths have climbed to 51 since 1 January 2025.

India's latest covid wave is caused by two new coronavirus variants, NB.1.8.1 and LF.7, mutations of the Omicron offspring JN.1 variant.

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“Concerns over the sharp spike of covid-19 cases in India can be due to increased testing in influenza-like illnesses (ILI) or acute respiratory infection (ARI) cases. Testing can be focused in hospitalized ILI cases. Thereafter, the communities from where increased admission of ILI cases (which are covid-19 positive) need to be further epidemiologically investigated. The mortality in high-risk elderly population and persons with co-morbidities also needs to be investigated,” he said.

The health ministry has directed all states and union territories to ensure health preparedness measures across health facilities to control the transmission of the infection. Assessment of oxygen supply system is being done in hospitals as part of the health preparedness measure.

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Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya, a public health expert, said that while there is fairly good understanding of SARS CoV2 virus to make inferences, it would be worthwhile for the government to regularly release epidemiological data of covid-19 cases.

“As of now, We don't know from where these covid-19 cases are being reported, what are their distribution patterns, do they have co-morbidities. The government should put data for epidemiological analysis to understand severity and pattern of the disease. The covid-19 virus has become mild to milder and people should not panic due to the spike in the covid. Furthermore, there should be a better communication approach and bring in more science and epidemiology while discussing on covid-19,” said Dr. Lahariya.

Meanwhile, the government has advised the public to practise hand hygiene, cough etiquette, and avoid crowded places when unwell. The health ministry has noted that individuals with acute respiratory illness should self-monitor and seek medical care if symptoms worsen.

According to Dr. Raman Gangakhedkar, a former scientist at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and currently national chair at ICMR, right now, India’s surveillance strategy should focus more on hospitalization and death rates.

“The number of cases being reported in the country is not important unless we know whether the hospitalization and deaths rated are increasing. The number of cases increases if one tests more and more people. These absolute numbers are of limited value as this is a mild infection. Rather, these covid numbers create panic in the people. And if, the hospitalization and death rates increase, sequencing those samples to see whether the virus has mutated or is the circulating variant will help design an appropriate strategy further. If it is an old omicron strain, then there is nothing to worry but, if it is a new strain, then measures need to be taken.”

Covid has become endemic, but the good news is that the newer variants continue to come from the omicron family over the last three years, Gangakedkar said.