Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? Impact of US Presidential Elections 2024 on India explored in 5 key points

US Presidential Elections 2024: On September 17, Republican nominee Donald Trump said he would meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the latter’s visit to the United States.

Modi visited the US on September 21. Three days later, he departed from New York for India without meeting Trump or Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee. Modi, it was said, preferred avoiding meeting US presidential candidates during poll season.

In 2019, the then-US President Trump hosted PM Modi in Texas at an event attended by an estimated 50,000 people. A year later, Modi welcomed Trump in his home state of Gujarat for an event attended by over 120,000 people.

The US Election 2024 will decide whether Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, or Donald Trump, the former President will be the 47th President of United States. As November 5, D-day draws closer, Mint looks at what the landmark election means for India.

The Biden Era

India-US relations were marked by different levels of cooperation during the outgoing Joe Biden administration, more so in strategy, defence, trade, health, and climate change, to name a few sectors.

In the past few years, the US has reemphasised a robust strategic partnership with India over the shared democratic values and stability in the region, especially the Indo-Pacific.

The Quad initiatives improved militarily and strategic relations between th etwo nations, not to mention enhanced sales of defence products, joint drills, and intelligence sharing.

There were efforts to improve trade relations and reduce the gap, while both countries dedicated themselves to climate change concerns with pledges of renewable energy and partnership on the US-India climate and clean energy agenda 2030. The Biden administration also extended aid to India during the COVID-19 pandemic and engaged in Vaccine diplomacy for India’s health needs.

“The US has perceived India through the prism of the ongoing competition in the Indo-Pacific. Washington considers India to be a contributor to regional deterrence in the context of China’s increased assertiveness and—at different times and to different degrees—a geopolitical counterbalance, economic alternative, a more trusted technology partner, and a democratic contrast to China,” wrote Tanvi Madan, author and senior fellow at Brookings, an American think tank.

5 Critical Sectors

The US Presidential Election 2024 could have several critical implications for India. The impact can be broadly classified into five sectors:

1-Bilateral Ties: Whether it is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, the outcome of the November 5 election will undoubtedly impact the India-US bilateral ties in defence, trade and strategic sectors.

2-Economic Impact: Bilateral trade between India and the US remains a cornerstone of their relationship. According to May 2024 data by economics think tank GTRI, the two countries exchanged about $118 billion worth of goods and services in FY 2023-24.

3-Geopolitics: The US stance on China, Russia, and other regional issues could affect the strategic moves that India wants to make. The US taking a tough stand against China could auger well for India.

4- Indian Americans: The Indian diaspora in the US plays a crucial role in shaping perceptions and policies. Election outcomes could influence their engagement in bilateral issues. About 4.5 million people in the US identify as being of Indian descent, according to 2020 US Census data.

5- Climate and Technology: Collaboration on Climate Change and technology transfer will also depend on what priorities the new administration will consolidate and adopt.

Carry Forward

If Harris becomes President, she is expected to carry forward most of trade policies established under the Biden administration emphasising economic resilience, domestic manufacturing, and reducing reliance on global supply chains. experts said.

Trump, on the other hand, has always favoured protectionist trade policies, focusing on America-first principles. 

“Questions about a potential Kamala Harris administration will revolve around how much continuity or change there will be from the Biden administration in terms of policy and personnel. Trump is expected to pursue a more transactional approach with greater scrutiny of the trade imbalance and migration," wrote Dr Chietigj Bajpaee, political analyst at Chatham House, a British think tank based in London, England. 

Trump had on September 17 referred to India as a ‘very big abuser’ of trade ties, while calling Modi ‘fantastic.’

As Madan writes, the relations will depend on the next US President’s priorities and sense of India’s role in them, the next administration’s approach to India and other partners, policies toward China and Russia, and view of US role in the world.

“At the end of the day, however, the importance of the US relationship for New Delhi means it will seek to work closely with whichever candidate makes it to the White House,” she wrote.