Fewer Airlines, more flights - Summer schedule set to create new records

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) released the summary of the approved Northern Summer schedule for domestic airlines in India. A total of 25,610 weekly flights have been approved, an increase of 2.4% over the concluding winter schedule and 5.5% over the previous summer. This is the first schedule after the consolidation in the Tata fold, with the group now having only two airlines—full-service carrier Air India and low-cost Air India Express.

Compared as a unit, Air India is shrinking by nearly 10%, while Air India Express is aiming to become 1.5 times its size. In the ongoing Winter schedule, Air India Express has not been able to fly as much as its approved flights.

The highest percentage growth has come from Star Air, which is growing 40% sequentially, while in absolute terms, Air India Express is growing the most, with 543 more flights per week, compared to the current schedule.

The schedule surpasses the pre-COVID levels and is the highest in history, paving the way for more passengers to be flown in Indian skies. The industry has been on a record-breaking spree since the start of this year. The current record of daily domestic passengers is 5.35 lakh on February 23. SpiceJet, which has been the only major airline shrinking, continues its slide. The airline has not been able to fly as many flights as approved in the ongoing schedule. Alliance Air will also shrink as it battles a raft of aircraft groundings.

The schedule sees operations to 129 airports. The Navi Mumbai airport and Noida Airport at Jewar have not accepted the schedules yet. Still, in all probability, these airports would start operations by October 2025, when the summer schedule transitions to the next winter. This will add to the count of operational airports.

As the weekly approved flight count keeps climbing, not all airlines utilise as many approved slots and operating flights. Airlines like IndiGo, Akasa Air and Air India have been diligent, while Air India Express and SpiceJet have been the laggards.

How are the airlines growing and shrinking?

The growth is coming from Air India Express, which aims to become 1.5 times its size, followed by Akasa Air and IndiGo. IndiGo might have a marginal 3% increase in its schedule but that translates to 467 additional flights a week, a substantial number and second highest after Air India Express. Akasa Air will cross the 1,000 flights a week mark on the domestic routes for the first time.

Three airlines are shrinking, which includes SpiceJet and Alliance Air. The surprise is Air India, which has approval for 4310 weekly domestic flights, compared to 4,779 in the ongoing season, which is a combination of Vistara and Air India. The shrinking is largely due to fleet rationalisation and transfer of routes to Air India Express. The strategy to push Air India Express to take up routes (along with planes) and compete with IndiGo is getting another push, going by the numbers. This also showcases how Air India will likely remain a metro player in the days to come and focus on a more premium experience.

The shrinking of Alliance Air could be a potential setback for the government's Regional Connectivity Scheme, UDAN. Alliance Air has been a major participant since the inception of the scheme.

Regionals holding on

The regional carriers, led by Star Air, have been slowly increasing their presence in the country. The airlines have also significantly increased their utilisation and performed better in slot adherence. Star Air, Indiaone, and FLy91 have plans to add flights, while Flybig has shrunk compared to the previous summer. Flybig has been unable to operate its approved schedule as it battles fleet shrinkage, amongst other issues.

Merger with 30% market share?

As part of the Vihaan.AI initiative of Air India, the group mentioned its intention of having a 30% market share in a span of five years. The airline group has inched closer to that number much earlier, with September last year seeing over 29% market share by the four airlines. There has been a dip in the market share post-merger. For the approved summer schedule, in terms of departures, the combined departure share is 30% of total departures.

However, Air India Express has been a laggard in utilising its approved departures, and it will have to scale up quickly if the group has to get to the 30% mark. Interestingly, the daily load factor numbers shared by the Ministry of Civil Aviation often show Air India having a better load factor than Air India Express.

May could be when Air India group achieves its target of 30% domestic market share. By that time, the transfer of a few higher-capacity A321s to Air India Express would be complete and in operation.