IMD revises upward monsoon forecast to 106% of long-period average, likely boost to rural economy

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its monsoon forecast slightly upwards to 106% of the long-period average (LPA) from 105% predicted on 15 April. Although the difference will be little in terms of the volume of rain, it does spell continuing good news for the farm sector.

“The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long-period average, with a model error of plus/minus 4%,” IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mahapatra said.

The IMD said heatwave days in June are likely to be below normal over most parts of northwest India and adjoining areas of central and eastern India.

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The LPA of the season’s rainfall for 1971-2020 was 87cm. The development offers farmers a valuable opportunity to accelerate sowing of key kharif crops like rice, maize, cotton, soybean, sugarcane, oilseeds and pulses, especially in rainfed regions where timing is crucial.

The matter assumes significance as a good rainfall would not only give a boost to the agrarian economy but also percolates down to building strong rural demand, which positively impacts a host of sectors including fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG).

Above-normal rain will also help the country improve its agricultural output and replenish water reservoirs.

Region-wise, the monsoon (June to September) rainfall is most likely to be above normal over central and south peninsular India (106% of LPA), normal over northwest India (92-108%) and below normal over northeast India (94%), according to the IMD.

Having already hit Kerala coast on 24 May, eight days before the normal data of 1 June, followed by Mumbai and the southern states, the monsoon is likely to hit the central and northeastern states in the next three-four days, added Mohapatra.

Also read | Govt targets 3.5% farm growth with kharif outreach to 13 million farmers

The monsoon season is crucial as it delivers nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall. The agriculture sector remains highly vulnerable to weather variability, with only about 55% of the net sowing area receiving water from the irrigation network and the rest dependent upon monsoon rains.

At the same time, agriculture accounted for 16% of the GDP in FY24 at current prices and supports about 46% of the population.

Good rainfall will also directly improve food security, sustaining livelihoods and supporting economic growth.

“Monsoon seems to have arrived with a strong start, bringing heavy rainfall in several parts of the country. An above-normal monsoon is a welcome tailwind for the economy amidst uncertainties. For one, it bodes well for rural demand, as higher agricultural output gives more income in the hands of the farmers and the rural employers,” said Rumki Majumdar, economist, Deloitte India.

Secondly, Majumdar said, better output will help bring down food prices and ease further pressure on inflation, which has been trending downwards. This in turn could signal the RBI to ease monetary policy further, thereby boosting credit growth, which has slowed to a multi-year low at 12.1%.

Also read | Farmers boost summer sowing ahead of promising monsoon season

However, the real impact will depend on the spatial distribution and timely rainfall. If rainfall is well-distributed, India can expect stronger consumption, better farm incomes, and a more balanced growth recovery, especially in rural and semi-urban India, according to Deloitte.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), during its monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting held from 7 to 9 April, listed adverse weather events and a rise in international agricultural commodity prices as posing risks to food inflation.

“The forecast of early onset of the 2025 southwest monsoon, coupled with expectations of above-normal rainfall, offers farmers a valuable opportunity to accelerate sowing of key kharif crops like rice, maize, cotton, soybean, and sugarcane, especially in rainfed regions where timing is crucial,” said Sanjiv Kanwar, managing director of Yara South Asia, a fertilizer company.

Banking on above-normal monsoon rains, the Centre has set a record foodgrain production target of 354.64 million tonnes for the crop year 2025-26. This is 3.8% or 13 million tonnes more than the 341.55 million tonnes foodgrain target in 2024-25.

Some concerns

According to Prof Anjal Prakash, clinical associate professor (research), Indian School of Business, the early arrival of the monsoon in India signals “both nature’s rhythm and a brewing warning from changing climate.”

“Its unpredictable onset now underscores the urgent reality of climate change. As global temperatures rise, so do irregular weather patterns, resulting in the monsoon arriving earlier or later than usual, disrupting ecosystems and livelihoods,” Prakash said.