IMD upgrades weather forecasts down to panchayat level with high-resolution system

From public safety to agriculture, India is poised for a significant boost in predictive capabilities as the national weather office announced on Monday its groundbreaking initiative to provide weather forecasts down to the village panchayat level.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has developed a 6-km horizontal spatial resolution model for its forecast system, from the current 12 km resolution, to enable localised weather forecasts. This assumes significance as it will enhance predictive capabilities across a wide range of domains including public safety, energy, transportation, infrastructure, disaster risk management and agriculture. 

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"The development of new indigenous global weather forecasting system entitled 'Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS)', a high-resolution (about 6 km) global forecasting model is a significant leap forward in our nation's weather forecasting capabilities," said Jitendra Singh, Union minister of state (independent charge) for earth sciences, while officially dedicating the system to the nation.

Improving accuracy

The high-resolution forecasts will improve accuracy and support timely decision-making, improving preparedness and optimising resource allocation.

According to IMD, BharatFS will be the only global numerical weather prediction system in the world deployed at such a high resolution, representing a major advancement in India's forecasting capabilities. 

Also Read: What has IMD predicted for monsoon advance in India? Check forecast here

At present, numerical models employed for the operational weather forecasting in India offer horizontal resolutions of a approximately 12 km, which typically corresponds to the scale of a block. However, the increasing frequency and impact of localised extreme weather events have highlighted the need for models with final spatial resolution. To address this, a novel grid structure known as the Triangular Cubic Octahedral (TCO) grid has been adopted. This grid enhances resolution specifically over the tropics along the model to achieve horizontal resolution of about 6 km in these regions, which is typically about the size of a cluster of panchayats and villages.

"This marks a considerable improvement over the previously operational Gaussian linear GFS T1534 model, which maintains a uniform global resolution of 12 km," said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general (meteorology), IMD.

Meanwhile, the IMD has predicted heavy to very heavy monsoon rainfall over west coast in Kerala, Karnataka, coastal Maharashtra and Goa during the next 6-7 days, with the possibility of extremely heavy rainfall over Kerala, Konkan including Mumbai city, Western Ghat areas of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. The monsoon hit the Kerala coast on 24 May, 8 days before the normal date of 1 June.

The IMD in statement said that the southwest monsoon has further advanced into central Arabian Sea, Maharashtra, including Mumbai, Karnataka, including Bengaluru, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, some more parts of west-central and north Bay of Bengal, Mizoram, Tripura, Manipur, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya.

Early monsoon raises hopes for bumper crops

The early monsoon in Kerala and other states has raised hope for bumper kharif crops such as rice, maize, cotton, soybean, oilseeds and horticulture crops. In addition to these crops, the outlook is also favourable for horticulture crops such as tomatoes and onions, with acreages expected to increase. However, heavy rainfall in cities such as Mumbai and Nagpur and others caused waterlogging, disrupting normal life and rail and road transportation services.

Also Read: Early monsoon in India sparks hopes for bumper harvests, easing inflation

"Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of central Arabian Sea, some more parts of Maharashtra, remaining parts of Karnataka, some more parts of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, remaining parts of west-central and some more parts of north Bay of Bengal and remaining parts northeastern states and some parts of sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the next 3 days," the IMD stated.