Cyclone ‘Shakti’: IMD official says monsoon flow is progressing very well; heavy rainfall alert issued in THESE states

Heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is expected in parts of India on Wednesday (May 14) as the southwest monsoon advances this week.

The India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday that southwest monsoon advanced into parts of the south Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands, and some areas of the north Andaman Sea on Tuesday.

Neeth K Gopal, Regional Director, IMD, Thiruvananthapuram, told news agency PTI on Wednesday that the monsoon flow is progressing very well.

"It has reached Andaman Seas and some parts of South Bay. So, this is the first entry point as well as South West Monsoon monitoring is concerned," he said.

"We have forecasted it to happen on 13th of May. Today, it has reached as expected," the weather official said, adding that in another four to five days, it will progress northward.

"It will cover some parts of the Arabian Sea and some more parts of Bay of Bengal and enter Andaman Islands and most parts of Andaman Sea," Neeth K Gopal said.

According to weather officials, the monsoon will likely reach Kerala (the mainland) on May 27 — earlier than the usual June 1. The monsoon usually covers the entire India by July 8, retreating from North-West India by September 17 and fully withdrawing by October 15.

Cyclone Shakti 'update'

The IMD said on Wednesday, May 14, that "The upper air cyclonic circulation over Andaman Sea between 1.5 & 7.6 km above mean sea level tilting southwestwards with height persists."

A "Cyclonic Circulation" refers to "atmospheric wind flow in upper levels associated with any low-pressure system.

Earlier, ABP Bengali quoted sources in the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) as saying that a low-pressure area is likely to form near the east-central Bay of Bengal from May 16 to May 22.

Bangladesh meteorologist Mostafa Kamal Palash, in a Facebook post on Sunday, said a cyclonic circulation forming between May 16th–18th could intensify into a cyclone by May 23rd–28th.

It may affect Odisha, West Bengal, and possibly Bangladesh. According to Odisha TV, preliminary projections indicate that coastal regions of Odisha and West Bengal in India, along with Khulna and Chattogram in Bangladesh, could be impacted, if the cyclone takes shape.

The cyclone’s exact path and intensity, however, remain uncertain at this stage.

Weather update/warning for May 14

The IMD predicted heavy rainfall in the North-eastern regions. Hailstorms are also expected in Telangana.

WATCH | IMD weather update:

Here's what IMD's forecast say:

1. Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall with isolated Extremely Heavy Rainfall very likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya. An 'Orange' alert has been issued Assam's Goalapara, Chirang and Dhubri, while the rest of the state remains on yellow alert.

2. Heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh and West Bengal. While majority of the districts in West Bengal is on yellow alert, an orange alert has been sounded in Jalpaiguri and Murshidabad.

3. Heavy Rainfall very likely at isolated places over Madhya Maharashtra, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Andhra Pradesh, Costal Karnataka, Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Tamilnadu & Puducherry.

4. Thunderstorm accompanied with hailstorm very likely at isolated places over Telangana.

5. Thundersquall with wind speed reaching(50-60kmph) very likely at isolated places over Chhattisgarh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Telangana.

6. Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning & gusty winds(40-50kmph) very likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, East Rajasthan, Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe, Konkan & Goa, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, Odisha, Rayalaseema, Tamilnadu & Puducherry and West Madhya Pradesh.

7. Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning & gusty winds(30-40kmph) very likely at isolated places over Bihar, East Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and West Bengal & Sikkim.

8. Thunderstorm accompanied with Lightning very likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh and Costal Karnataka.

9. Heatwave conditions very likely at isolated places over East Uttar Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand.

10. Hot and Humid Weather is very likely at isolated places over Bihar, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry.

11. Squally wind with speed 45 kmph to 50 kmph gusting to 55 kmph very likely to prevail along and off Somalia coast, over gulf of Mannar; adjoining Comorin area, along and off south Sri Lanka coast; adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal.

12. Squally weather with wind speed 35 kmph to 45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph prevailing over Andaman sea; adjoining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal.

13. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.